中国财政风险的理论思考及实证分斩（外文翻译）.doc

The author thinks that, from the allocation of resources, products must be the distribution of financial capital, the specific management three levels were analyzed, and the core of the financial risk, respectively of risk and friction distribution of risk to a comprehensive understanding of financial risk. In the whole process of analysis, the author of its currency stable strictly assumed that completely.



(a) the core of the financial risk. The study of the allocation of resources is the allocation of resources, to reflect the principle of efficiency; Only social resources to get the reasonable configuration, social welfare to achieve the maximum, fundamentally create conditions for financial health. Finance is the social resources configuration of a basic channel, if through the financial allocation of resources is not reasonable, it will bring efficiency loss, the author thinks that, this is the fundamental sense of financial risk, which is the core of the financial risk, its efficiency loss of specific number is the core of the financial risk of quantitative index.



According to the public finance theory, the core of the financial risk and its quantitative in theory can be derived. If society is only "financial" and "private" both, "duty is expended" the collection of the will "duty is expended" of the payment of the actual utility get ability, "duty is expended" will therefore make the have negative utility: "duty is expended" pay in the financial products for public consumption, will gain utility; When "duty is expended" of the payment of marginal "duty is expended" negative utility consumption is equal to the marginal utility of public products, temple: the resources in the financial and will be between private to reach optimization, the configuration of the financial scale at this time is the best scale. The scale of the financial capital too big or too small to bring efficiency loss of the core of the financial risk, that is. It can be said that if the core of the financial risk is very small, financial overall there would be no risk; And the core of the financial risk is bigger, financial balance in fact is not possible.



(2) distribution of financial risk. In the financial sector (" the large financial departments of the notion that the government department) and the private sector to realize reasonable allocation of resources, on the basis of the financial departments and the private sector will also carry out internal wealth rationally. Inside the financial department of the horizontal and vertical distribution of resources efficiency loss caused by the formation of the financial system risk; The private sector pattern of income distribution if not reasonable, will increase the transfer payment of stress, which originated from the private sector in the distribution of internal financial risk sex.

（一）财政的核心风险。学研究的是资源配置的，资源配置要体现效率的原则；只有社会资源得到了合理配置，社会福利才能实现最大化，才能从根本上为财政的健康创造条件。财政是社会资源配置的一个基本渠道，如果通过财政配置的资源是不合理的，则必将带来效率损失，笔者认为，这就是根本意义上的财政风险，即财政的核心风险，其效率损失的具体数量就是财政的核心风险的量化指标。

　　根据公共财政理论，财政的核心风险及其量化在理论上是可以推导出来的。假定社会上只有“财政”和“私人”两者，“税费”的收取将“税费”缴纳者的实际效用获得能力，“税费”缴纳者将因此产生负效用：“税费”缴纳者在消费财政提供的公共产品的时候，将会获得效用；当“税费”缴纳者的边际“税费”负效用等于其消费公共产品的边际效用时，祠：会的资源在财政和私人之间的配置达到最优化，此时的财政规模为最佳规模。财政资金的规模过大或过小带来的效率损失，就是财政的核心风险。可以认为，如果财政的核心风险非常小之时，财政总体上就不会有风险；而财政的核心风险比较大的时候，财政的平衡实际上是不可能的。

　　（二）分配性财政风险。在财政部门（指大的财政部门概念，即政府部门）和私人部门实现资源合理配置的基础上，财政部门和私人部门内部也将进行财富的合理配置。财政部门内部横向和纵向的资源分配造成的效率损失形成财政的体制性风险；私人部门的收入分配格局如果不合理，将加大财政转移支付的压力，从而导源于私人部门内部的分配性财政风险。
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