浅析搁浅船舶的安全性综合评判.doc

浅析搁浅船舶的安全性综合评判

摘要  由于搁浅船舶的安全性缺乏公认的指标，而且特别受环境的影响，因此搁浅船舶的安全性具有模糊性。本文在阐述搁浅船舶安全性研究现状的基础上，系统分析了影响搁浅船舶安全性的主要因素，利用DELPHI专家调查法和层次分析法（AHP），确定评判搁浅船舶安全性的指标体系和指标权重，以及指标与各评判等级之间的隶属函数，运用模糊数学中的多级综合评判方法，建立了预测搁浅船舶安全性的模糊综合评判模型。评判模型可广泛应用于船方、主管机关及有关决策人员，在船舶发生搁浅事故时，对搁浅船舶的安全状况进行评估，为船舶采取及时、合理、科学的救助方法和脱浅方法提供依据，以期减少人为判断上的失误，保障海上人命和财产的安全。

关键词  搁浅船舶  安全  AHP法  模糊评判

The Comprehensive Assessment of the Safety of The Grounding vessel

[Abstract]  Accidents of ship grounding will cause such disasters as ship hull damage, environmental pollu2tion, lost lives and soon. The existence of fuzzy characteristic of the assessment for the safety of grounding vessels from the non-recognized standard which is determined by the circumstances of the sea environment and the conditions of the grounding vessels. In this paper, we set the safety of grounding vessel as the search subject. On the base of analyze the current situation of the safety of grounding vessel, the penman analyze the main factor of which influence the safety of the grounding vessel. And takes attention of DELPHI expert questionnaire and the AHP, ensure the system of assess safety of grounding vessel and the weight of each index, use the method of step comprehensive assessment in the fuzzy mathematics. The pemnan establishes the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model, which forecast safety of grounding vessel. The model can widely use for decision-maker onboard and relative decision-making person, to judge the safety of grounding vessel. Which provide foundation for embarrassed vessel to adopt seasonable and reasonable method to rescue or deviate, in order to reduce the human error, ensure of the safety of property and human life on the sea.

[Key word]  Grounding vessel  Safety  AHP  Fuzzy assessment

目 录

引 言 1
第1章　船舶搁浅及安全性研究 3
1.1 船舶搁浅 3
1.1.1 船舶搁浅的定义 4
1.1.2船舶搁浅的危害 4
1.1.3船舶搁浅事故的原因 4
1.2 搁浅船舶安全性 5
1.3 搁浅船舶安全性的模糊性 6
第2章　搁浅船舶安全评判方法 8
第3章 安全性的影响因素分析 11
3.1 搁浅特征 11
3.2船舶特征 13
3.3 环境特征 16
第4章 建立安全性综合评判的模型 19
4.1评判指标权重 19
4.11　DELPHI法 19
4.12专家调查法 20
4.2隶属函数的建立 27
4.3模型的建立 44
第5章  评判模型的应用举例 48
结束语 51
致谢语 52
参考文献 53