水文模型研究与于桥水库洪水预报.doc

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摘要

于桥水库位于蓟运河流域左支州河，是“引栾入津”工程重点调蓄水库之一，总库容15.59亿m3。受大陆性季风气候、地形、人为因素等影响，该区域降水量集中与6~9月份，且年际变化大，故极端暴雨干旱灾害时有发生。因此，需要选择适当的预报系统对水库入水量作出及时准确的预报，为库区水资源优化调度提供保障。

本次将于桥流域划分为库区间、龙门口、水平口、前毛庄共4个自然子流域，并以年降雨径流相关图对各子流域的进行时期划分。根据子流域的自然地理概况、水库建造情况和水文资料的整理情况，在前毛庄子流域内，采用CASC2D模型和新安江模型两种模型进行模拟，在水平口、龙门口以及于桥流域则采用适用于无资料地区的新安江模型进行参数率定。在进行于桥流域模拟时，选择两种方案进行，结果表明模拟计算效果良好。根据于桥水库的模型模拟情况开发于桥流域实时洪水预报系统，实现资料提取处理、洪水预报和调洪演算，为水库调度提供及时准确的依据。

关键词：于桥水库；新安江模型； CASC2D模型；降雨径流关系；洪水预报系统

 

Abstract

Yuqiao reservoir is located in the left branch of Zhouhe river on the Jiyunhe basin, it is one of the important regulating reservoir about ‘water diversion project from Luanhe river to Tianjin City’ project, which can store 1.559 billion m3 of water. Affected by some factors, such as continental monsoon climate, terrain, human factors, the most precipitation is concentrated in June to September, and the interanural change is big, so extreme torrential rain disasters sometimes may be occurred. Therefore, it is imperative to make such a forecasting system which is conducive to reservoir filling and water resources optimal allocation.

According to natural sub basin division method , Yuqiao was divided into four sub basins , Qiangmaozhuang , Shuipingkou , Longmenkou and the Yuqiao reservoir area . Then by using rainfall-runoff correlation diagram , the research of each sub basin was divided into different periods. The CASC2D model and Xin'anjiang model were applied to Qiangmaozhuang sub basin . in other sub basin because of the date's lack , we choose to use Xin'anjiang model only . watchable，two scheme were applied to Yuqiao reservoir area simulation and the results are satisfying . on the basis of those results , we developed the flood forecasting system which include date extraction , flood forecasting and flood routing to supply timely and accurate gist for Yuqiao reservoir opration.

Key Words: Yuqiao resrvior ;  Xinanjiang model； CASCD2D model；Rainfall-runoff relationship；Flood forecasting system