对当前中国汇率变动与物价变动的关系的探索（毕业论文）.doc

论文（设计）题目（此论文共17858字）
Title Of Thesis（Design） 对当前中国汇率变动与物价变动的关系的探索
专　　业
Speciality 国际经济与贸易
摘要
汇率是两国货币之间兑换的比例，物价是商品价值的货币表现，经济学的一般理论认为汇率上涨会带来通货紧缩，但我国当前的现状是汇率和物价同时上涨。汇率上调是国内外双重因素造成的。国内，经济高速发展，根据平价购买力理论得出人民币购买力被低估，因此人民币有升值的趋势；在国际市场中，对人民币升值的要求主要源于中国巨大的贸易顺差，为了平衡国际贸易人民币汇率也必然要上调。基于这两方面原因，人民币升值是必然的。通过对近20年GDP超过11%的几个年限的相关价格指数的对比分析，可以看出中国现在尚不存在经济过热的现象，中国物价的上涨只是由于房价的上涨和食品价格的上涨所带动的，不具有普遍性。因此，我国现在汇率和物价的关系，并没有违背经济学的一般原理。借鉴日本汇率变动对经济影响的经验，我国应当通过控制汇率实现汇率与物价之间平稳发展的目标。
关键词： 消费者物价指数 国际收支顺差 购买力平价 汇率风险
To current Chinese exchange rate change and price change relations exploration
Abstract:
Exchange rate is the proportion that both countries exchanges between currency. The currency being commodity value shows prices. The economics sort theory thinks that exchange rate goes up may bring about deflation, but the current situation of our country is that exchange rate and prices go up at the same time. Home and abroad is the main factor that bring about the raising exchange rate. Economy develops at top speed in the homeland, purchasing power theory reaches RMB purchasing power according to fair price being underestimated, RMB trend having appreciation therefore; The request in international market, appreciating to RMB originates from gigantic active balance of Chinese mainly , needs to move up also surely for the exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies balancing international trade. Owing to this cause in two aspects, RMB appreciates is inevitable. Through surpasses 11% several fixed numbers of years to nearly 20 year GDP the related price indices contrast analysis, China now still did not have the economical excessively hot phenomenon, The Chinese price rise only is because the house price rise and food price rise. It does not have the universality Therefore, our country exchange rate now composes in reply the prices relation , does not go against the economics sort principle. Using Japan exchange rate for reference changing the experience affecting to economy, our country ought to realize the target developing stably between exchange rate and prices by controlling exchange rate.
Key words: Consumer Price Index Favorable balance of payments Purchasing power parity Exchange rate risk
目录
引言 ……………………………………………………………………………………………1
一、关于汇率和物价的基本概念和原理 ………………………………………………………1
（一）汇率的基本概念 ………………………………………………………………………1
（二）物价的基本概念 ………………………………………………………………………2
（三）汇率变动与物价变动的一般关系原理 ………………………………………………3
二、当前中国汇率变动与物价变动的关系 ……………………………………………………4
（一）中国汇率变动与物价变动的现状 ……………………………………………………4
1．汇率变动的现状…………………………………………………………………………4
2．物价变动的现状…………………………………………………………………………5
3．结论………………………………………………………………………………………7
（二）中国汇率变动与物价变动的原因 ……………………………………………………9
1．中国汇率变动的原因……………………………………………………………………9
2．中国物价变动的原因……………………………………………………………………10
三、汇率变动对经济影响的国际借鉴 …………………………………………………………11
（一）20世纪80年代日元汇率的变动情况以及对经济的影响……………………………11
（二）借鉴日企经验，积极应对人民币升值 ………………………………………………13
四、利用汇率控制物价的方法及实现汇率与物价平稳发展的途径 …………………………16
（一）利用汇率控制物价的方法 ……………………………………………………………16
（二）实现汇率与物价平稳发展的途径 ……………………………………………………16
1．我国企业的应对方法……………………………………………………………………17
2．我国人民银行的应对方法………………………………………………………………17
3．我国商业银行的应对方法………………………………………………………………17
4．我国外汇管理部门的应对方法…………………………………………………………18
结论 ………………………………………………………………………………………………19
致谢语 ……………………………………………………………………………………………20
参考文献 …………………………………………………………………………………………21