大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估方法及应用研究.doc

大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估方法及应用研究

摘  要

近年来，大型商场由于安全管理不善，导致特大火灾事故绵绵不断，从火灾事故统计数据，我们知道，造成这些重大火灾事故，大部分都与责任人或责任因素有关，但由于各地火灾公共责任保险的投保面窄，投保额低，政府在灾害事故的善后工作中承担着巨大的压力。 这种状况既不利于社会的稳定，也不利于经济社会的可持续发展。因此，在积极预防灾害、加强安全管理的同时，充分发挥火灾公众责任保险的作用，加快建立因他方责任而造成的第三者财产损失和人身伤害的补偿机制，显得十分紧迫和必要。
保险公司应提升服务水平，充分发挥保险经济杠杆的作用，根据保险标的的不同风险实行浮动费率，体现“奖优罚劣”的目的。作为保险部门，通过火灾风险评估可以全面考察商场的火灾风险状况，研究商场的火灾风险如何随外界条件的改变而变化，以便为寻求最优的安全投资提供可靠的理论依据。它的主要任务是准确识别系统中存在的火灾风险因素，并对这些火灾风险因素的影响程度做出恰当的评估，量化被评估对象的火灾风险状况，为提出控制与处理事故的措施和方案奠定基础。可见，如何科学地评估大型商场火灾风险状况，既有利于火灾公众责任保险业务稳定经营，也为核保提供技术支持。因此，它是保险行业迫切需要解决的问题，它为制定合理的火灾公众责任保险费率和出具防灾防损建议提供科学依据。
本文就火灾公众责任保险在全面推行过程中，对一定会遇到的问题作了较为细致的研究。其主要结论如下：
（1）在全面了解国内外火灾公众责任保险实施的基础上，详细论述现阶段我国火灾公众责任保险强制实施的重要性和紧迫性。论述国内外火灾风险评估方法研究现状、发展趋势以及在保险行业的应用状况。
（2）论文对商场火灾危险性进行了分析，讨论了因素集、评估集、单级评估、评估计算模型和多级评估模型，并在此基础上建立了以商场建筑自身安全、灭火救援力量、疏散系统、人员特征以及防火管理为子集的大型商场火灾风险模糊评估的三级指标体系，采用专家调查表方法确定了评估指标的权重系数。
（3）模糊综合评估方法可以对难以定量的多因素体系做出定量评估，它可以将定量的问题以及人们对此问题的主观判断有数量的形式表达出来，并进行模糊运算处理。它在一定程度上能减少人的主观错误，使评估更加科学合理。本论文采用模糊综合评估方法对大型商场火灾风险进行评估，具有一定的理论和现实意义。
（4）在商场火灾风险评估研究的基础上，对火灾公众责任保险的费率厘定作了进一步的探讨，并制定了科学合理的定价模型，对当前火灾公众责任保险的全面推行，具有相当重要的现实意义。
（5）本文通过对武汉某商场的火灾风险评估，演示了所提出的方法的可行性，它为保险公司和商场的风险控制工作提供技术支撑。

关键词：火灾公共责任保险 火灾风险评估 费率 风险控制
 

Research on Fire Risk Assessment Method of the Large-scale Markets about the Public Liability Insurance of Fire

ABSTRACT
Recently, the bad safety management causes the big fire accident continuously in the large-scale markets. From the fire accident statistics data, these big fire accidents are related to the owners or the responsibility factors. However, because the limited insured items and low lines of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire, government was undertaking the huge pressure at the following-up treatment of disaster. This kind of condition does not only favor the social stability, but also the sustainable development of economic society. Therefore, when we prevent the disaster and enhance the safety control positively we should display the function of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire fully, speeds up the establishment of compensation mechanism for the third party property damage and the person injures caused by another source of responsibility, that appears extremely urgent and essential.
Insurance companies should upgrade their service standards and give full play as the role of insurance economic levers. It should practice a floating rate according to the various subject matter of insurance, reflecting the purpose of “reward the good and fine the bad”. As the insurance sector, they can have a comprehensive study of the fire risk situation by conducting the fire risk assessment. They do research on how the fire risk will be changing with the changed of the conditions of the outside world, in order to provide a reliable theory for seeking the best safety investment. Its main task is to identify the fire risk factors which are existed in the system accurately, and to do some appropriate assessment about the impact level of the fire risk factors， and to quantify the situation of the fire risk of the eva luated-objects. Through above steps, they can lay out the foundations to measures and programmes. So, How to eva luate the fire risk conditions of shopping malls scientifically is not only good to conduct the fire public liability insurance stability, but to provide technical supports for underwriting. Therefore, it is the impressing problem to be addressed in the insurance industry. It also provides scientific suggestions for formulating a reasonable rate of fire of public liability insurance and telling out the advices of disaster prevention and loss Prevention.
This article is on the careful research about the problems we will meet during the comprehensive process when we carry out the Public liability Insurance of Fire. As follows are the main conclusions:
（1）On the basic of having a comprehensive understanding of the implementation of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire at home and abroad, discussing in detail that the importance and urgency of the enforcemented implementation of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire at the stage in our country. Discussing the research status, developing trend and the application in the insurance aboat the fire risk assessment methods at home and abroad.
（2）the paper has carried on the analysis to the hazard of market fires, the discussion about the factor system, the eva luation system, single class eva luation, eva luation calculation model and multilevel eva luation mode. And established in this foundation we have established the three level standards system which is about the fuzzy appraisal of large-scale market’ s fire risks which consists of the building’s own security, the fire fighting rescue strength, the scattered system, the personnel characteristic as well as the fire protection management. Subsystem factors were ascertained. Using experts’ research method, the author made sure the weight of the fire eva luation system.
（3）Fuzzy comprehensive eva luation method can make quantitative assessment on the multi-factors’ system . The quantitative problems and the People's subjective judgements on this issue can be expressed in the way of amout, and to do fuzzy processing. To a certain extent, it can reduce the subjective mistakes and make the eva luation more scientifically. This paper used fuzzy comprehensive method to eva luate the fire risk of Large-scale Markets, has a theoretical and practical significance.
（4）on the basis of assessment research of market fires risks, the author make the further discussion about the tariff of the Public Liability Insurance of Fire, and formulate the scientific and reasonable model of fixing price, which have the practical significant influence on the comprehensive carrying out the Public Liability Insurance of Fire.
（5）through the assessment of fires risks to some market in Wuhan, the author demonstrates the feasibility of the method which proposed. It provides the effective technical support for the insurance company and the control of risk to Large-scale Markets.

Key Words: the Public Liability Insurance of Fire  fire risk assessment  the tariff   the control of risk
 

目  录

第一章 绪 论 1
§ 1.1 课题的研究背景 1
1.1.1 我国大型商场火灾形势严峻 1
1.1.2大型商场火灾特点 2
1.1.3 火灾公众责任保险的强制推行必要性 3
§1.2 国内外火灾风险评估方法在保险业中的应用现状 4
§1.3 本文研究内容和意义 5
1.3.1 研究内容 5
1.3.2 研究意义 6
第二章 常见建筑火灾风险评估方法 7
§ 2.1 火灾风险的相关概念 7
§ 2.2火灾风险的度量和容忍度 9
2.2.1 火灾风险的度量 9
2.2.2 风险容忍度 10
§2.3 火灾风险评估方法 10
2.3.1 定性分析方法 10
2.3.2 半定量分析方法 11
2.3.3 定量分析方法 14
第三章 大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标体系建立 19
§3.1 大型商场火灾发展特性 19
3.1.1 火灾起始阶段 19
3.1.2 火灾全面发展阶段 20
3.1.3 火灾熄灭阶段 20
§3.2 大型商场火灾主要原因 21
3.2.1电气火灾 21
3.2.2装饰装修违反消防规定 21
3.2.3消防设施缺陷 21
3.2.4消防意识淡薄 22
3.2.5公众普遍缺乏消防常识 22
§3.3 大型商场内火灾蔓延途径 22
3.3.1水平方向蔓延 22
3.3.2火灾通过竖井蔓延 23
3.3.3火灾通过空调系统管道蔓延 23
3.3.4火灾由窗口向上层蔓延 23
§3.4 大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标体系的建立 23
3.4.1评估指标建立和选取的原则 23
3.4.2大型商场火灾风险评估的一级因素分析 24
3.4.3大型商场火灾风险评估的二级因素分析 25
3.4.4风险评估指标体系的建立 25
3.4.5风险评估指标的量化 26
第四章 大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估模型研究 32
§4.1模糊评估理论基础 32
4.1.1 因素集 32
4.1.2 评估集 33
4.1.3 一级模糊综合评判 33
4.1.4 单因素综合评估的计算模型 34
4.1.5 计算模型的适用范围 35
4.1.6 多层次模糊综合评估 35
§4.2大型商场火灾公众责任保险风险评估指标权重的确定 36
4.2.1权重确定方法的对比分析 36
4.2.2专家咨询法 36
4.2.3评估指标权重确定 37
第五章 火灾公众责任保险的定价模型探讨与研究 42
§5.1国内外责任保险发展概述 42
5.1.1国外责任保险发展概况 42
5.1.2我国责任保险发展概况 42
§5.2 责任保险的概念与特点 43
5.2.1责任保险的概念 43
5.2.2责任保险的特点 43
§5.3火灾公众责任保险基本内容 44
5.3.1保险对象 45
5.3.2保险责任 46
5.3.3责任除外 46
5.3.4责任限额 46
§5.4火灾公众责任保险费率厘定 46
5.4.1保险费率的含义与构成 46
5.4.2保险费率厘定的基本原则 47
5.4.3火灾公众责任保险费率厘定 47
§5.5小结 48
第六章 研究模型实例应用 49
§6.1武汉某大型商场概况 49
§6.2火灾风险评估指标描述 49
6.2.1建筑自身防火系统 49
6.2.2灭火系统 50
6.2.3安全疏散系统 51
6.2.4人员疏散系统 51
6.2.5防火管理系统 52
§6.3武汉某大型商场火灾风险评估 52
§6.4火灾公众责任保险费率厘定 56
§6.5小结 57
第七章 结束语 59
致    谢 61
参考文献 62