北京市居民家庭金融资产投资影响因素分析.doc

北京市居民家庭金融资产投资影响因素分析

摘要

    本文从北京市居民家庭金融资产投资的影响因素入手，对居民家庭的可支配收入、消费支出和风险这三个宏观影响因素进行了重点分析。通过回归分析，研究了收入和消费对金融资产投资的影响，并采用邹氏检验法确定了2002年前后北京市居民家庭收入、消费与金融资产投资之间的关系发生了结构性变化；同时通过计量模型研究了不同收入水平对金融资产投资的不同影响，并从平均倾向和边际倾向的角度分析了家庭消费和金融资产投资的关系；继而研究了金融资产投资的平均风险投资倾向和边际风险投资倾向；最后分析了家庭收入、消费增长率与金融资产投资增长率的关系。研究发现，家庭金融资产投资与收入正相关，与消费负相关，而且不同收入水平对家庭金融资产投资的影响差异也很大；而风险因素研究发现，北京市居民家庭金融资产投资比较保守，重安全轻收益的投资意识仍然较强，这导致了家庭投资效率低下。从增长率的角度来看，家庭收入的增长速度对金融资产投资的增长速度有促进作用，而消费的增长速度却有抑制作用。

关键词：金融资产投资  可支配收入  消费支出  风险

ABSTRACT

    The analysis of three macroscopic factors, the disposable income, the consumption expenditure and the risk, has been done, starting from the influence factors of the investment of the financial assets of the families of Beijing. According to the regression analysis, the influence of the income and consumption on the investment of the financial assets has been studied, and the relationship between the income, the consumption and the investment of the financial assets of the families of Beijing before and after 2002 has been confirmed by the test of Chow; the various influence of the different income levels on the financial asset investment has been studied according to the econometric model, and the relationship between the families consumption and the financial assets investment has been analyzed from the point of view of the average venture capital trends and the marginal risk propensity to invest; finally, the relationship between the families income, the consumption increase rate, and the financial assets investment increase rate. Studies show the positive correlation exists between the families financial assets investment and the income, and the negative correlation exists between the families financial assets investment and the consumption, furthermore, the influences of the different income level on the families financial assets investment vary greatly; while the studies of the risks factors show that the families financial assets investment of Beijing tends to be conservative, the investment awareness tends to be good, which will lead to the low investment efficiency. On the aspect of the increasing rate, the increasing velocity of the family income will prompt the financial investment of the financial assets investment, but will suppress the increase velocity of the consumption as well.

Keywords: financial assets investment, disposable income, spending, risk
 
目录
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
一、引言 1
（一）研究背景 1
（二）研究意义 1
（三）国内外研究现状 2
二、居民家庭金融资产投资影响因素的实证研究 3
（一）收入与居民家庭金融资产投资 5
1、居民家庭收入规模对金融资产投资的影响分析 5
2、居民家庭金融资产投资和收入关系的结构性检验 6
3、居民家庭的不同收入水平对金融资产投资的影响分析 9
（二）消费与居民家庭金融资产投资 11
1、平均消费倾向与平均金融资产投资倾向 11
2、边际消费倾向与边际金融资产投资倾向 13
3、居民家庭金融资产投资和消费关系的结构性检验 14
（三）风险与居民家庭金融资产投资 15
1、平均风险投资倾向和边际风险投资倾向 16
2、居民家庭风险投资倾向分析 17
（四）金融资产投资增长率与收入、消费增长率的关系 19
四、结论 23
参考文献 24