fpso在石油卸载过程.doc
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fpso在石油卸载过程,摘 要穿梭油船与fpso进行石油串联卸载期间，不可避免的发生碰撞、输油软管断裂、气体输送管道泄漏等风险事件。油气一旦泄漏很有可能引发剧烈的火灾、爆炸，危及到平台及人员的安全。风险评估技术可以科学地预测事故发生概率及破坏程度，从而降低事故风险。对fpso石油外输作业系统进行风险评估技术的研究，建立一套风险分析方法，对提高...
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摘 要
穿梭油船与FPSO进行石油串联卸载期间，不可避免的发生碰撞、输油软管断裂、气体输送管道泄漏等风险事件。油气一旦泄漏很有可能引发剧烈的火灾、爆炸，危及到平台及人员的安全。风险评估技术可以科学地预测事故发生概率及破坏程度，从而降低事故风险。对FPSO石油外输作业系统进行风险评估技术的研究，建立一套风险分析方法，对提高FPSO石油外输作业的安全性具有极其重要的意义。
本文在广泛调研的基础上，针对FPSO进行石油外输作业期间的相关风险因素进行了风险识别，将风险进行等级划分；改进了穿梭油船与浮式平台发生漂移碰撞的概率数学模型，结合典型数据进行计算，得到了穿梭油船与FPSO发生漂移碰撞的概率；采用NEPTUNE软件对油气泄漏事故的后果进行模拟分析；结合碰撞事故案例，进行事件树和事故树分析，并采用贝叶斯网络法加以修正；最后提出降低风险的措施。
本文主要工作如下：
1. 采用概率分析方法，基于事件发生频率和后果的严重程度，分析了FPSO外输作业期间的风险因素，进行了FPSO外输作业期间的风险识别，并划分风险等级；从材料失效概率、人员安全、环境风险三方面研究了FPSO与穿梭油轮石油外输作业系统风险可接受准则；
2. 利用数学统计的方法，研究了穿梭油船偏移事件与碰撞事件之间的联系；基于动力碰撞理论和漂移碰撞理论，结合典型数据进行计算，得到穿梭油船与FPSO发生动力碰撞和漂移碰撞的概率；改进了挪威船级社关于船舶与平台发生漂移碰撞的概率模型，得到穿梭油船与浮式平台发生漂移碰撞的概率公式，并根据相关数据进行计算；阐述了FPSO与穿梭油轮进行串联石油卸载的具体操作过程；分析了穿梭油船在石油外输作业期间发生偏移的原因及其后果。
3. 利用NEPTUNE软件针对输油软管断裂和碰撞事件引发的原油和碳氢气体泄露后果进行模拟分析。并预测了泄漏事故引发火灾的概率，探讨了火灾、热辐射、气体爆炸的影响范围；
4. 结合碰撞事故案例，进行事件树和事故树分析，采用贝叶斯网络法加以修正；提出降低风险的措施。
关键词 FPSO； 穿梭油船； 风险评估； 贝叶斯网络
ABSTRACT
During offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO, there are some accidents which can’t be avoid, for example, Shuttle tanker crashed FPSO, oil hose ruptured, leak incident of the gas production process module and so on. The leakage of oil and gas may lead to severe fire, explosion, endangering to the platform, working vessels, personnel. Scientific risk assessment causing widespread concern can predict the probability of accidents and damage, thus reducing the risk of accidents in the marine engineering field. So it is extremely important to establish risk assessment techniques concerning on offloading operations in order to improve the security of offloading operations.
Based on extensive research, this thesis identifies the hazard during offloading operation between Shuttle tanker and FPSO, then grade the classification of the hazard; This thesis establishes the mathematical model of collision during offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO and calculates the risk probability of collision; This thesis simulates the gas leak with the software NEPTUNE and forecasts the influence of accident; Contacting the collision events, this thesis analyzes the HOE with the event-tree-method, fault-tree-method; and result should be corrected with the Bayesian-network-method to be more accurate; this thesis predicts scientific the scope of the event, propose measures of the risk reduction.
The main work as follows:
1. This thesis analyzes the risk factors during offloading operation, then grade the classification of the hazard; the thesis researches the acceptance criteria of hazard during offloading operation in three aspects of failure probability, personnel safety and environment risk.
2. the thesis establishes the mathematical model of collision during offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO; making use of statistical date，the thesis quantitative analysis the probability of the collision during offloading operations; This thesis describes the specific process of the offloading operations between FPSO and shuttle tanker; the thesis analysis the cause of shuttle tanker leaves the designated location and its consequences;
3. This thesis analyzes the two consequences for leakages during the offloading operation of shuttle tanker and FPSO by software NEPTUNE form DNV. This thesis also forecasts the probability of fire by leakage, discuss the influence limits of fire, Thermal radiation and Gas explosion.
4. Contacting the collision events, this thesis analyzes the HOE with the event-tree-method, fault-tree-method; and because fault-tree-method is insufficient, result should be corrected with the Bayesian-network-method to be more accurate.
Key words FPSO; Shuttle tanker; risk assessment; Bayesian net
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT III
目 录 V
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 选题的理论意义和实用价值 1
1.2 国内外研究现状与发展趋势 3
1.3 研究内容与研究方法 8
1.3.1研究内容 8
1.3.2 研究方法 8
1.3.3 创新点 9
第2章 海洋工程风险评估理论 10
2.1 引言 10-br..
穿梭油船与FPSO进行石油串联卸载期间，不可避免的发生碰撞、输油软管断裂、气体输送管道泄漏等风险事件。油气一旦泄漏很有可能引发剧烈的火灾、爆炸，危及到平台及人员的安全。风险评估技术可以科学地预测事故发生概率及破坏程度，从而降低事故风险。对FPSO石油外输作业系统进行风险评估技术的研究，建立一套风险分析方法，对提高FPSO石油外输作业的安全性具有极其重要的意义。
本文在广泛调研的基础上，针对FPSO进行石油外输作业期间的相关风险因素进行了风险识别，将风险进行等级划分；改进了穿梭油船与浮式平台发生漂移碰撞的概率数学模型，结合典型数据进行计算，得到了穿梭油船与FPSO发生漂移碰撞的概率；采用NEPTUNE软件对油气泄漏事故的后果进行模拟分析；结合碰撞事故案例，进行事件树和事故树分析，并采用贝叶斯网络法加以修正；最后提出降低风险的措施。
本文主要工作如下：
1. 采用概率分析方法，基于事件发生频率和后果的严重程度，分析了FPSO外输作业期间的风险因素，进行了FPSO外输作业期间的风险识别，并划分风险等级；从材料失效概率、人员安全、环境风险三方面研究了FPSO与穿梭油轮石油外输作业系统风险可接受准则；
2. 利用数学统计的方法，研究了穿梭油船偏移事件与碰撞事件之间的联系；基于动力碰撞理论和漂移碰撞理论，结合典型数据进行计算，得到穿梭油船与FPSO发生动力碰撞和漂移碰撞的概率；改进了挪威船级社关于船舶与平台发生漂移碰撞的概率模型，得到穿梭油船与浮式平台发生漂移碰撞的概率公式，并根据相关数据进行计算；阐述了FPSO与穿梭油轮进行串联石油卸载的具体操作过程；分析了穿梭油船在石油外输作业期间发生偏移的原因及其后果。
3. 利用NEPTUNE软件针对输油软管断裂和碰撞事件引发的原油和碳氢气体泄露后果进行模拟分析。并预测了泄漏事故引发火灾的概率，探讨了火灾、热辐射、气体爆炸的影响范围；
4. 结合碰撞事故案例，进行事件树和事故树分析，采用贝叶斯网络法加以修正；提出降低风险的措施。
关键词 FPSO； 穿梭油船； 风险评估； 贝叶斯网络
ABSTRACT
During offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO, there are some accidents which can’t be avoid, for example, Shuttle tanker crashed FPSO, oil hose ruptured, leak incident of the gas production process module and so on. The leakage of oil and gas may lead to severe fire, explosion, endangering to the platform, working vessels, personnel. Scientific risk assessment causing widespread concern can predict the probability of accidents and damage, thus reducing the risk of accidents in the marine engineering field. So it is extremely important to establish risk assessment techniques concerning on offloading operations in order to improve the security of offloading operations.
Based on extensive research, this thesis identifies the hazard during offloading operation between Shuttle tanker and FPSO, then grade the classification of the hazard; This thesis establishes the mathematical model of collision during offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO and calculates the risk probability of collision; This thesis simulates the gas leak with the software NEPTUNE and forecasts the influence of accident; Contacting the collision events, this thesis analyzes the HOE with the event-tree-method, fault-tree-method; and result should be corrected with the Bayesian-network-method to be more accurate; this thesis predicts scientific the scope of the event, propose measures of the risk reduction.
The main work as follows:
1. This thesis analyzes the risk factors during offloading operation, then grade the classification of the hazard; the thesis researches the acceptance criteria of hazard during offloading operation in three aspects of failure probability, personnel safety and environment risk.
2. the thesis establishes the mathematical model of collision during offloading operation between shuttle tanker and FPSO; making use of statistical date，the thesis quantitative analysis the probability of the collision during offloading operations; This thesis describes the specific process of the offloading operations between FPSO and shuttle tanker; the thesis analysis the cause of shuttle tanker leaves the designated location and its consequences;
3. This thesis analyzes the two consequences for leakages during the offloading operation of shuttle tanker and FPSO by software NEPTUNE form DNV. This thesis also forecasts the probability of fire by leakage, discuss the influence limits of fire, Thermal radiation and Gas explosion.
4. Contacting the collision events, this thesis analyzes the HOE with the event-tree-method, fault-tree-method; and because fault-tree-method is insufficient, result should be corrected with the Bayesian-network-method to be more accurate.
Key words FPSO; Shuttle tanker; risk assessment; Bayesian net
目 录
摘 要 I
ABSTRACT III
目 录 V
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 选题的理论意义和实用价值 1
1.2 国内外研究现状与发展趋势 3
1.3 研究内容与研究方法 8
1.3.1研究内容 8
1.3.2 研究方法 8
1.3.3 创新点 9
第2章 海洋工程风险评估理论 10
2.1 引言 10-br..
