深海耐压结构物风险评估.doc
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深海耐压结构物风险评估,摘要深海耐压结构物主要包括潜艇、深潜器和深海空间站等海洋结构物。深海耐压结构物在复杂的深海环境中运行，不可避免地会产生风险，比如碰撞与搁浅、火灾与爆炸等。对深海耐压结构物系统进行风险评估关键技术研究，建立一套适用于深海耐压结构物风险评估的分析方法，对提高深海耐压结构物的安全性具有极其重要的意义。本文在对风险评估关键技术...
内容介绍
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摘 要
深海耐压结构物主要包括潜艇、深潜器和深海空间站等海洋结构物。深海耐压结构物在复杂的深海环境中运行，不可避免地会产生风险，比如碰撞与搁浅、火灾与爆炸等。对深海耐压结构物系统进行风险评估关键技术研究，建立一套适用于深海耐压结构物风险评估的分析方法，对提高深海耐压结构物的安全性具有极其重要的意义。
本文在对风险评估关键技术理论研究的基础上，对深海耐压结构物进行了风险识别；结合深海耐压结构物各组成部分的特点与功能，对深海耐压结构物进行了失效模式及影响分析，有针对性地对其薄弱环节提出可能的检测手段和预防改进措施；建立了基于误差分析的三维碰撞概率计算模型，研究了深海耐压结构物碰撞概率的计算方法，编制相应的计算程序，研究了碰撞概率与各个交会参量之间的内在联系；结合水面船舶碰撞危险度，引入深海耐压结构物碰撞危险度的相关概念，基于BP神经网络进行碰撞危险度计算，研究了深海耐压结构物避碰决策过程。
本文主要工作如下：
1.在对风险识别的基本理论和主要方法研究的基础上，首先进行深海耐压结构物风险识别，找出可能的风险事故，并对其进行排序，如碰撞、搁浅、火灾、爆炸、疲劳、腐蚀和超深等。然后选取两种典型的事故进行研究，并采用专家调查法进行碰撞与搁浅事故的风险分析，同时采用故障树法进行火灾与爆炸事故的风险分析。
2.结合深海耐压结构物各组成部分的特点与功能，通过对深海耐压结构物进行失效模式及影响分析，研究了深海耐压结构物所有可能的失效模式、原因及影响，进而有针对性地对其薄弱环节提出可能的检测手段和预防改进措施。
3.首先分析了深海耐压结构物碰撞事故发生的特点，基于二项式分布预测了某典型海域深海耐压结构物的年碰撞频率。然后，在对基于误差分析的三维碰撞概率原理研究的基础上，研究了深海耐压结构物碰撞概率算法，编制碰撞概率计算程序，通过多个虚拟碰撞目标算例，对碰撞概率方法做了进一步验证。最后，研究碰撞概率的各影响因素，揭示了碰撞概率与各个交会参量之间的内在联系。
4.首先在研究水面船舶碰撞风险度的基础上，引入深海耐压结构物碰撞危险度的相关概念。然后以最具代表性的判定依据DCPA和TCPA为网络输入，采用Clementine软件进行基于BP神经网络的碰撞危险度计算。最后对深海耐压结构物的避碰决策过程中人—深海耐压结构物—环境三因素进行综合研究。
关键词 深海耐压结构物 风险评估 失效模式及影响分析 碰撞概率 BP神经网络
ABSTRCAT
Deep-sea pressure structures are mainly including submarines, deep diving device , deep sea space station and other devices.Deep-sea pressure structure working in the complex deep-sea environments, inevitably cause risk, such as collision and grounding, fire and explosion etc. Study on the key technology of deep-sea pressure structure risk assessment and the establishment of a suitable risk analysis methods have very important significance to improve the security of deep-sea pressure structure.
In this paper, on the basis of theoretical research on key technology of risk assessment, deep-sea pressure structure risks are identified.Combining the features and function of each component deep-sea pressure structure, failure mode and effect analysis for deep-sea pressure structure is carried on in order to put forward inspection means and preventive measures. Three-dimensional collision probability model based on the error analysis is established. The collision probability of deep-sea pressure structure is caculated, in virtue of computer program. Combined with the common ship collision risk index, the related concepts for deep-sea pressure structure is introduced. The collision risk index is calculated based on the BP neural network while deep-sea pressure structure collision avoidance decision-making process is studied.
The main works of this article are listed as follows:
1.On the basic of study on theory and main method of risk identification, firstly deep-sea pressure structure risk is identificated to find out the possible risk source, such as collision, grounding, fire, explosion, fatigue, corrosion and exceed deep, etc. Secondly, two typical accidents are studied and expert questionnaire is adopted in collision and grounding risk identification while the fault tree method for fire and explosion risk identification.
2.Combining the features and function of each component deep-sea pressure structure, failure mode and effect analysis for deep-sea pressure structure is carried on. The deep-sea pressure structure all possible failure modes, cause and effectin is studied in order to put forward inspection means and preventive measures.
3.Fitstly,the accide characteristics of deep-sea pressure structure collision and grounding is studied；based on the binomial distributio theory，the typical waters of annual probability for collision accident is predicted.Three-dimensional collision probability model based on the error analysis is established. The collision probability of deep-sea pressure structure is caculated, in virtue of computer program. Through multiple virtual collision target example, collision probability method was further verified. Finally, by studying each affecting factor of probability, the collision probability and various parameters of the inner relationship between the rendezvous is revealed.
4.Firstly,combined with the common ship collision risk index, the related conce..
深海耐压结构物主要包括潜艇、深潜器和深海空间站等海洋结构物。深海耐压结构物在复杂的深海环境中运行，不可避免地会产生风险，比如碰撞与搁浅、火灾与爆炸等。对深海耐压结构物系统进行风险评估关键技术研究，建立一套适用于深海耐压结构物风险评估的分析方法，对提高深海耐压结构物的安全性具有极其重要的意义。
本文在对风险评估关键技术理论研究的基础上，对深海耐压结构物进行了风险识别；结合深海耐压结构物各组成部分的特点与功能，对深海耐压结构物进行了失效模式及影响分析，有针对性地对其薄弱环节提出可能的检测手段和预防改进措施；建立了基于误差分析的三维碰撞概率计算模型，研究了深海耐压结构物碰撞概率的计算方法，编制相应的计算程序，研究了碰撞概率与各个交会参量之间的内在联系；结合水面船舶碰撞危险度，引入深海耐压结构物碰撞危险度的相关概念，基于BP神经网络进行碰撞危险度计算，研究了深海耐压结构物避碰决策过程。
本文主要工作如下：
1.在对风险识别的基本理论和主要方法研究的基础上，首先进行深海耐压结构物风险识别，找出可能的风险事故，并对其进行排序，如碰撞、搁浅、火灾、爆炸、疲劳、腐蚀和超深等。然后选取两种典型的事故进行研究，并采用专家调查法进行碰撞与搁浅事故的风险分析，同时采用故障树法进行火灾与爆炸事故的风险分析。
2.结合深海耐压结构物各组成部分的特点与功能，通过对深海耐压结构物进行失效模式及影响分析，研究了深海耐压结构物所有可能的失效模式、原因及影响，进而有针对性地对其薄弱环节提出可能的检测手段和预防改进措施。
3.首先分析了深海耐压结构物碰撞事故发生的特点，基于二项式分布预测了某典型海域深海耐压结构物的年碰撞频率。然后，在对基于误差分析的三维碰撞概率原理研究的基础上，研究了深海耐压结构物碰撞概率算法，编制碰撞概率计算程序，通过多个虚拟碰撞目标算例，对碰撞概率方法做了进一步验证。最后，研究碰撞概率的各影响因素，揭示了碰撞概率与各个交会参量之间的内在联系。
4.首先在研究水面船舶碰撞风险度的基础上，引入深海耐压结构物碰撞危险度的相关概念。然后以最具代表性的判定依据DCPA和TCPA为网络输入，采用Clementine软件进行基于BP神经网络的碰撞危险度计算。最后对深海耐压结构物的避碰决策过程中人—深海耐压结构物—环境三因素进行综合研究。
关键词 深海耐压结构物 风险评估 失效模式及影响分析 碰撞概率 BP神经网络
ABSTRCAT
Deep-sea pressure structures are mainly including submarines, deep diving device , deep sea space station and other devices.Deep-sea pressure structure working in the complex deep-sea environments, inevitably cause risk, such as collision and grounding, fire and explosion etc. Study on the key technology of deep-sea pressure structure risk assessment and the establishment of a suitable risk analysis methods have very important significance to improve the security of deep-sea pressure structure.
In this paper, on the basis of theoretical research on key technology of risk assessment, deep-sea pressure structure risks are identified.Combining the features and function of each component deep-sea pressure structure, failure mode and effect analysis for deep-sea pressure structure is carried on in order to put forward inspection means and preventive measures. Three-dimensional collision probability model based on the error analysis is established. The collision probability of deep-sea pressure structure is caculated, in virtue of computer program. Combined with the common ship collision risk index, the related concepts for deep-sea pressure structure is introduced. The collision risk index is calculated based on the BP neural network while deep-sea pressure structure collision avoidance decision-making process is studied.
The main works of this article are listed as follows:
1.On the basic of study on theory and main method of risk identification, firstly deep-sea pressure structure risk is identificated to find out the possible risk source, such as collision, grounding, fire, explosion, fatigue, corrosion and exceed deep, etc. Secondly, two typical accidents are studied and expert questionnaire is adopted in collision and grounding risk identification while the fault tree method for fire and explosion risk identification.
2.Combining the features and function of each component deep-sea pressure structure, failure mode and effect analysis for deep-sea pressure structure is carried on. The deep-sea pressure structure all possible failure modes, cause and effectin is studied in order to put forward inspection means and preventive measures.
3.Fitstly,the accide characteristics of deep-sea pressure structure collision and grounding is studied；based on the binomial distributio theory，the typical waters of annual probability for collision accident is predicted.Three-dimensional collision probability model based on the error analysis is established. The collision probability of deep-sea pressure structure is caculated, in virtue of computer program. Through multiple virtual collision target example, collision probability method was further verified. Finally, by studying each affecting factor of probability, the collision probability and various parameters of the inner relationship between the rendezvous is revealed.
4.Firstly,combined with the common ship collision risk index, the related conce..
