我国制造业上市公司财务预警.doc
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我国制造业上市公司财务预警,摘要随着国民经济的发展，越来越多的公司选择上市融资，这使上市企业固有的风险分摊到普通股民及证券投资者中。如何规避风险，指导人们作出正确投资决策就成为理论研究者的一个重要课题。从近年来沪、深两市上市公司及国内外其他企业的现状分析可以看出，企业经营失败往往源于薄弱的财务环节。财务管理是企业管理的核心，企业资金运动中枢一旦遭...
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摘 要
随着国民经济的发展，越来越多的公司选择上市融资，这使上市企业固有的风险分摊到普通股民及证券投资者中。如何规避风险，指导人们作出正确投资决策就成为理论研究者的一个重要课题。从近年来沪、深两市上市公司及国内外其他企业的现状分析可以看出，企业经营失败往往源于薄弱的财务环节。财务管理是企业管理的核心，企业资金运动中枢一旦遭受损害，会导致财务状况恶化，并引发财务风险，当财务风险加剧到企业无法承担的极限时，全面危机将会随之爆发，进而导致企业的破产。因此，建立财务风险评价及预警系统，及时预测风险，并采取相应措施，将风险消灭于萌芽阶段，就成为现代企业财务管理的一项重要内容。
自中国加入WTO以来，出口急剧增加，制造业得到了前所未有的发展。制造业逐渐成为我国国民经济的基础和支柱，也成为国家生产能力的集中体现。然而，随着我国制造业的发展，技术落后，规模较小，财务管理水平较低等劣势也随之显现出来。加上金融危机的冲击，使中国依赖出口的制造业企业面临巨大的压力，许多企业纷纷破产。加强财务管理，及时对财务危机进行预警，提前做好应对准备，不仅能使制造业企业能顺利度过金融危机的困难，同时也为企业今后的发展提供有力的支持。
本文第一章首先介绍了构建财务预警模型研究的背景及意义，接着对财务危机、公司治理和经济增加值等概念进行了界定，最后总结了本文的结构脉络和创新之处。第二章回顾了主要五个财务预警模型的国内外相关文献，并分别对各模型进行了评述。第三章分别对两个财务预警模型进了设计。第四章对两模型进行了实证分析，研究发现在Logistic模型中在三年模型中，每股净资产、资产周转率、基本每股收益、审计意见与公司是否被特别处理有比较密切的关系。而经济增加值法更适合于中远期预警。最后对全文进行了总结，总体而言Logistic模型的预警效果要更优。
关键词： 财务预警；Logistic模型；经济增加值
Abstract
With the development of national economy, more and more companies choose public financing, which makes sharing the risks inherent in listed companies to ordinary shareholders and securities investors. How to avoid risks, guiding people to the right investment to become an important topic in theoretical researchers. From recent years, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies and other businesses at home and abroad Analysis shows that business failure often stems from a weak financial links. Financial management is the core of enterprise management, enterprise central capital once to be damaged will lead to deteriorating financial situation, and trigger a financial risk, financial risk if the enterprise can`t afford to increase the limit, the comprehensive crisis will ensued, and then lead to business bankruptcy. Therefore, the establishment of financial risk assessment and early warning systems, timely prediction risk, and take appropriate measures to eliminate risk in the bud stage to become a modern enterprise financial management is an important content.
Since China joined the WTO turned sharp increase in exports, manufacturing has been an unprecedented development. Manufacturing has become the basis of our national economy. However, as China's manufacturing industry`s weaknesses also will be revealed. Many Chinese export-dependent manufacturing enterprises are facing tremendous pressure, many companies went bankrupt. To strengthen financial management, not only make the company through a difficult period of financial crisis, but also for the development of powerful enterprises in the future support.
Chapter I introduces the financial early-warning model for building the background and significance, then defies the concept, finally, the structural context of this article, and innovation. Chapter II recalls the main five financial early warning models relevant literature, and for each model were reviewed. Chapter III, respectively, into the design of financial distress prediction model. Chapter IV the empirical analysis of two models, the study found in the Logistic model in three years, net assets per share, asset turnover, basic earnings per share, audit opinions is associated with the company to be ST . The EVA method is more suitable for the long-term early warning. Finally summarizes the full text, in general, Logistic Model is better.
Key words: Financial Distress, Logistic model, EVA
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究目的及意义 3
1.2 相关概念界定 5
1.2.1 财务危机 5
1.2.2 财务预警 7
1.2.3 公司治理 8
1.2.4 经济增加值 8
1.3 研究思路和方法 10
1.3.1 研究思路 10
1.3.2 研究方法 11
1.4 结构安排和创新之处 11
1.4.1 论文结构安排 11
1.4.2 创新之处 12
1.5 本章小结 12
第2章 文献回顾与评述 13
2.1 单变量预警模型 13
2.2 多元线性判别模型 13
2.3 逻辑回归模型 14
2.4 神经网络模型 15
2.5 经济增加值法 16
2.5.1 国外对EVA研究情况回顾 17
2.5.2 国内对EVA研究情况回顾 18
2.6 国内外研究现状评述 18
2.7 本章小结 19
第3章 研究设计 20
3.1 Logistic模型研究设计 20
3.1.1 研究样本的设计 20
3.1.2 研究方法与研究程序 25
3.2 经济增加值模型研究设计 27
3.2.1 研究样本的选择 27
3.2.2 经济增加值分类 27
3.2.3 会计数据的调整 28
3.2.4 EVA的具体计算 30
3.3 本章小结 32
第4章 实证研..
随着国民经济的发展，越来越多的公司选择上市融资，这使上市企业固有的风险分摊到普通股民及证券投资者中。如何规避风险，指导人们作出正确投资决策就成为理论研究者的一个重要课题。从近年来沪、深两市上市公司及国内外其他企业的现状分析可以看出，企业经营失败往往源于薄弱的财务环节。财务管理是企业管理的核心，企业资金运动中枢一旦遭受损害，会导致财务状况恶化，并引发财务风险，当财务风险加剧到企业无法承担的极限时，全面危机将会随之爆发，进而导致企业的破产。因此，建立财务风险评价及预警系统，及时预测风险，并采取相应措施，将风险消灭于萌芽阶段，就成为现代企业财务管理的一项重要内容。
自中国加入WTO以来，出口急剧增加，制造业得到了前所未有的发展。制造业逐渐成为我国国民经济的基础和支柱，也成为国家生产能力的集中体现。然而，随着我国制造业的发展，技术落后，规模较小，财务管理水平较低等劣势也随之显现出来。加上金融危机的冲击，使中国依赖出口的制造业企业面临巨大的压力，许多企业纷纷破产。加强财务管理，及时对财务危机进行预警，提前做好应对准备，不仅能使制造业企业能顺利度过金融危机的困难，同时也为企业今后的发展提供有力的支持。
本文第一章首先介绍了构建财务预警模型研究的背景及意义，接着对财务危机、公司治理和经济增加值等概念进行了界定，最后总结了本文的结构脉络和创新之处。第二章回顾了主要五个财务预警模型的国内外相关文献，并分别对各模型进行了评述。第三章分别对两个财务预警模型进了设计。第四章对两模型进行了实证分析，研究发现在Logistic模型中在三年模型中，每股净资产、资产周转率、基本每股收益、审计意见与公司是否被特别处理有比较密切的关系。而经济增加值法更适合于中远期预警。最后对全文进行了总结，总体而言Logistic模型的预警效果要更优。
关键词： 财务预警；Logistic模型；经济增加值
Abstract
With the development of national economy, more and more companies choose public financing, which makes sharing the risks inherent in listed companies to ordinary shareholders and securities investors. How to avoid risks, guiding people to the right investment to become an important topic in theoretical researchers. From recent years, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies and other businesses at home and abroad Analysis shows that business failure often stems from a weak financial links. Financial management is the core of enterprise management, enterprise central capital once to be damaged will lead to deteriorating financial situation, and trigger a financial risk, financial risk if the enterprise can`t afford to increase the limit, the comprehensive crisis will ensued, and then lead to business bankruptcy. Therefore, the establishment of financial risk assessment and early warning systems, timely prediction risk, and take appropriate measures to eliminate risk in the bud stage to become a modern enterprise financial management is an important content.
Since China joined the WTO turned sharp increase in exports, manufacturing has been an unprecedented development. Manufacturing has become the basis of our national economy. However, as China's manufacturing industry`s weaknesses also will be revealed. Many Chinese export-dependent manufacturing enterprises are facing tremendous pressure, many companies went bankrupt. To strengthen financial management, not only make the company through a difficult period of financial crisis, but also for the development of powerful enterprises in the future support.
Chapter I introduces the financial early-warning model for building the background and significance, then defies the concept, finally, the structural context of this article, and innovation. Chapter II recalls the main five financial early warning models relevant literature, and for each model were reviewed. Chapter III, respectively, into the design of financial distress prediction model. Chapter IV the empirical analysis of two models, the study found in the Logistic model in three years, net assets per share, asset turnover, basic earnings per share, audit opinions is associated with the company to be ST . The EVA method is more suitable for the long-term early warning. Finally summarizes the full text, in general, Logistic Model is better.
Key words: Financial Distress, Logistic model, EVA
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究目的及意义 3
1.2 相关概念界定 5
1.2.1 财务危机 5
1.2.2 财务预警 7
1.2.3 公司治理 8
1.2.4 经济增加值 8
1.3 研究思路和方法 10
1.3.1 研究思路 10
1.3.2 研究方法 11
1.4 结构安排和创新之处 11
1.4.1 论文结构安排 11
1.4.2 创新之处 12
1.5 本章小结 12
第2章 文献回顾与评述 13
2.1 单变量预警模型 13
2.2 多元线性判别模型 13
2.3 逻辑回归模型 14
2.4 神经网络模型 15
2.5 经济增加值法 16
2.5.1 国外对EVA研究情况回顾 17
2.5.2 国内对EVA研究情况回顾 18
2.6 国内外研究现状评述 18
2.7 本章小结 19
第3章 研究设计 20
3.1 Logistic模型研究设计 20
3.1.1 研究样本的设计 20
3.1.2 研究方法与研究程序 25
3.2 经济增加值模型研究设计 27
3.2.1 研究样本的选择 27
3.2.2 经济增加值分类 27
3.2.3 会计数据的调整 28
3.2.4 EVA的具体计算 30
3.3 本章小结 32
第4章 实证研..
