cbd项目投资决策风险的识别与评价.doc
约81页DOC格式手机打开展开
cbd项目投资决策风险的识别与评价,摘 要cbd是城市发展过程中的必然产物。随着城市现代化的发展，越来越多的国家和地区在筹建cbd项目，在我国cbd建设近年来呈现出如火如荼的状态。但是不是每一个cbd的建成都带来了经济社会效益，由于项目决策的盲目性，一些cbd的建设甚至为城市的发展带来重创，不仅没有带来效益而且带来了很大的社会问题，比如cbd周边交通拥堵...
内容介绍
此文档由会员 违规屏蔽12 发布
摘 要
CBD是城市发展过程中的必然产物。随着城市现代化的发展，越来越多的国家和地区在筹建CBD项目，在我国CBD建设近年来呈现出如火如荼的状态。但是不是每一个CBD的建成都带来了经济社会效益，由于项目决策的盲目性，一些CBD的建设甚至为城市的发展带来重创，不仅没有带来效益而且带来了很大的社会问题，比如CBD周边交通拥堵、城市CBD的功能淡化等问题。在如今的城市CBD建设中如何避免这些问题的出现呢？必须对项目的决策依据做出充分的论证，而这些依据主要集中在项目决策风险上，因此有必要对CBD项目投资决策风险进行研究。
文章通过对国内外CBD相关研究文献进行综述发现针对CBD的已有研究多侧重在城市规划视角下的研究，而对CBD项目投资决策风险涉及较少。论文首先简单介绍了CBD的相关概念与CBD项目决策风险的相关理论，论述我国CBD建设的问题与风险研究的必要性；然后详细论述了CBD项目投资决策风险的识别与评价，按照风险与外界的关系将风险因素分为系统外部风险、系统内部风险与系统交错风险等三类，并运用工作-风险分解法对CBD项目决策风险进行了识别，建立了CBD项目风险库，同时给出了CBD项目风险因素指标权重的确定方法；接下来考虑到综合风险是系统不可控制风险与可控制风险的综合体，将相对风险标度比系数引入模糊综合评价方法中，对原有模型进行了修正，从而规避了传统模糊综合评价最大隶属度判断的绝对性评判缺乏科学性的缺陷；最后以长沙市经济技术开发区CBD项目为研究对象，对其投资决策风险展开研究，并基于分析结果给出了其风险控制的相应对策建议。
以上研究一定程度上丰富了项目风险管理的理论与方法，而且对提高城市CBD项目投资决策的科学性具有现实意义。
关键词 中央商务区；风险；模糊综合评价
Abstract
CBD is inevitable product in the process of city development. With the development of urban modernization, the CBD project is under construction in more and more countries and regions. In recent years, the construction of CBD in our country is on a roll. But not all the construction of CBD has brought economic and social benefits. Even some of the construction of CBD development has brought heavy losses for the city , not only did not bring benefits but also brought a lot of social problems such as traffic congestion around the CBD、the city played down the function of CBD and other issues, owing to the blindness of project decisions. How to avoid these problems of the city CBD building today? Decisions must be based on the project to make a full argument, which focused on project decision-making based on risk, so it is necessary to study the CBD risk of investment decision.
The paper has found that more focused perspective in urban planning research, but risk of CBD involves less investment decision, from the CBD-related articles on domestic and international research literature reviewed. Paper first introduces the concept of CBD and the related theory of CBD projects decision-making risk ,discusses the issues of CBD construction and the necessary of research risk; and then discusses in detail the investment decision CBD risk identification and eva luation, in accordance with the risk and the outside world between the risk factors into the system of external risk, internal risk systems and system staggered three types of risk, and identified the CBD project decision-making risks by use of the method of work - risk decomposition, establish a CBD project risk database, and gives the CBD project risk factors method for determining the index weight; next is the system taking into account the comprehensive risk control risk and may not be a synthesis of control risk, the relative risk scale than coefficient of fuzzy comprehensive eva luation method, the original model was modified to avoid the traditional fuzzy comprehensive eva luation to determine the absolute maximum degree of a lack of scientific eva luation defect; Finally, Changsha Economic and Technological Development Zone CBD project as the research object, studies its investment decision risk,gives its corresponding risk control countermeasures based on the analysis results .
The research of above not only enriches the research of project risk management theory and methods on a certain degree, but also provides the practical significance for improving the city CBD scientific investment decision
Key words central business district; risk; fuzzy comprehensive eva luation
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 2
1.2.1 CBD国内外研究现状 2
1.2.2 研究趋势 5
1.3 研究内容与方法 6
1.3.1 研究内容 6
1.3.2 研究方法与技术路线 6
1.4 论文创新点 7
第2章 理论基础与国内CBD建设现状 8
2.1 CBD的相关概念理论 8
2.1.1 CBD的定义与类别 8
2.1.2 CBD的特征 8
2.1.3 CBD的功能演化 9
2.2 CBD项目风险 10
2.2.1 CBD风险概念 10
2.2.2 CBD项目风险的特点 10
2.2.3 CBD项目风险分类 11
2.2.4 CBD项目投资决策风险管理的目标与任务 13
2.3国内CBD建设现状分析 14
2.3.1 国内CBD建设的优势 14
2.3.2 国内CBD建设的问题 15
2.3.3 国内CBD建设投资决策风险研究的必要性 17
2.4 本章小结 18
第3章 CBD项目投资决策风险识别研究 19
3.1 CBD项目风险因素分析 19
3.1.1 CBD项目系统外部风险因素 19
3.1...
CBD是城市发展过程中的必然产物。随着城市现代化的发展，越来越多的国家和地区在筹建CBD项目，在我国CBD建设近年来呈现出如火如荼的状态。但是不是每一个CBD的建成都带来了经济社会效益，由于项目决策的盲目性，一些CBD的建设甚至为城市的发展带来重创，不仅没有带来效益而且带来了很大的社会问题，比如CBD周边交通拥堵、城市CBD的功能淡化等问题。在如今的城市CBD建设中如何避免这些问题的出现呢？必须对项目的决策依据做出充分的论证，而这些依据主要集中在项目决策风险上，因此有必要对CBD项目投资决策风险进行研究。
文章通过对国内外CBD相关研究文献进行综述发现针对CBD的已有研究多侧重在城市规划视角下的研究，而对CBD项目投资决策风险涉及较少。论文首先简单介绍了CBD的相关概念与CBD项目决策风险的相关理论，论述我国CBD建设的问题与风险研究的必要性；然后详细论述了CBD项目投资决策风险的识别与评价，按照风险与外界的关系将风险因素分为系统外部风险、系统内部风险与系统交错风险等三类，并运用工作-风险分解法对CBD项目决策风险进行了识别，建立了CBD项目风险库，同时给出了CBD项目风险因素指标权重的确定方法；接下来考虑到综合风险是系统不可控制风险与可控制风险的综合体，将相对风险标度比系数引入模糊综合评价方法中，对原有模型进行了修正，从而规避了传统模糊综合评价最大隶属度判断的绝对性评判缺乏科学性的缺陷；最后以长沙市经济技术开发区CBD项目为研究对象，对其投资决策风险展开研究，并基于分析结果给出了其风险控制的相应对策建议。
以上研究一定程度上丰富了项目风险管理的理论与方法，而且对提高城市CBD项目投资决策的科学性具有现实意义。
关键词 中央商务区；风险；模糊综合评价
Abstract
CBD is inevitable product in the process of city development. With the development of urban modernization, the CBD project is under construction in more and more countries and regions. In recent years, the construction of CBD in our country is on a roll. But not all the construction of CBD has brought economic and social benefits. Even some of the construction of CBD development has brought heavy losses for the city , not only did not bring benefits but also brought a lot of social problems such as traffic congestion around the CBD、the city played down the function of CBD and other issues, owing to the blindness of project decisions. How to avoid these problems of the city CBD building today? Decisions must be based on the project to make a full argument, which focused on project decision-making based on risk, so it is necessary to study the CBD risk of investment decision.
The paper has found that more focused perspective in urban planning research, but risk of CBD involves less investment decision, from the CBD-related articles on domestic and international research literature reviewed. Paper first introduces the concept of CBD and the related theory of CBD projects decision-making risk ,discusses the issues of CBD construction and the necessary of research risk; and then discusses in detail the investment decision CBD risk identification and eva luation, in accordance with the risk and the outside world between the risk factors into the system of external risk, internal risk systems and system staggered three types of risk, and identified the CBD project decision-making risks by use of the method of work - risk decomposition, establish a CBD project risk database, and gives the CBD project risk factors method for determining the index weight; next is the system taking into account the comprehensive risk control risk and may not be a synthesis of control risk, the relative risk scale than coefficient of fuzzy comprehensive eva luation method, the original model was modified to avoid the traditional fuzzy comprehensive eva luation to determine the absolute maximum degree of a lack of scientific eva luation defect; Finally, Changsha Economic and Technological Development Zone CBD project as the research object, studies its investment decision risk,gives its corresponding risk control countermeasures based on the analysis results .
The research of above not only enriches the research of project risk management theory and methods on a certain degree, but also provides the practical significance for improving the city CBD scientific investment decision
Key words central business district; risk; fuzzy comprehensive eva luation
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景及意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 2
1.2.1 CBD国内外研究现状 2
1.2.2 研究趋势 5
1.3 研究内容与方法 6
1.3.1 研究内容 6
1.3.2 研究方法与技术路线 6
1.4 论文创新点 7
第2章 理论基础与国内CBD建设现状 8
2.1 CBD的相关概念理论 8
2.1.1 CBD的定义与类别 8
2.1.2 CBD的特征 8
2.1.3 CBD的功能演化 9
2.2 CBD项目风险 10
2.2.1 CBD风险概念 10
2.2.2 CBD项目风险的特点 10
2.2.3 CBD项目风险分类 11
2.2.4 CBD项目投资决策风险管理的目标与任务 13
2.3国内CBD建设现状分析 14
2.3.1 国内CBD建设的优势 14
2.3.2 国内CBD建设的问题 15
2.3.3 国内CBD建设投资决策风险研究的必要性 17
2.4 本章小结 18
第3章 CBD项目投资决策风险识别研究 19
3.1 CBD项目风险因素分析 19
3.1.1 CBD项目系统外部风险因素 19
3.1...
