基于实物期权的大型造船.doc
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基于实物期权的大型造船,摘要大型造船设施是造修船必备的关键设施，因此造船企业总是面临着大型造船设施投资决策问题。作为造船企业的一项固定资产投资，它占造船企业投资成本的较高比例，它是造船企业进行造船投资决策的主要影响因素，是造船企业赖以存在的前提。由于大型造船设施投资本身也存在着许多与其他投资项目不同的特点，如投资规模大、期限长、管理弹性多等特...
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摘 要
大型造船设施是造修船必备的关键设施，因此造船企业总是面临着大型造船设施投资决策问题。作为造船企业的一项固定资产投资，它占造船企业投资成本的较高比例，它是造船企业进行造船投资决策的主要影响因素，是造船企业赖以存在的前提。由于大型造船设施投资本身也存在着许多与其他投资项目不同的特点，如投资规模大、期限长、管理弹性多等特点，决定了传统投资决策方法无法圆满解决大型造船设施投资决策问题。因此有必要为大型造船设施投资决策寻找一种更为适用和有效的投资决策方法，论文采用实物期权方法对大型造船设施投资决策进行了研究。
（1）论文介绍了等待期权、悬置期权、增长期权、放弃期权、分段期权、规模期权、转换期权及组合期权等8种实物期权类型，详细分析大型造船设施投资决策的特点及其实物期权特征。通过与传统投资决策方法的对比分析，阐述了实物期权方法在投资决策中的应用优势，实物期权方法能够补充和修正传统投资决策评价方法所忽视的投资者管理弹性所包含的价值。因此本文选择实物期权方法对大型造船设施投资决策进行研究。
（2）在具体应用实物期权方法进行大型造船设施投资决策时，论文根据生命周期理论以及影响造船企业投资决策的不确定性因素，对造船企业各个生命周期中所具有的主要的实物期权类型进行了识别。将大型造船设施投资决策中所存在的各种管理弹性及其对应的实物期权类型主要归纳为四种：扩大造船能力的弹性与战略性的增长期权、停运与否的弹性与悬置期权、投资时机选择弹性与等待期权以及退出弹性与放弃期权。
（3）为便于实物期权方法在大型造船设施投资决策中的应用，论文分别为这四种期权类型建立了相应期权计价模型并通过案例进行分析验证。通过与传统投资决策方法的对比，验证了该方法的优越性，这对我国造船业投资决策具有借鉴意义。
关键词 大型造船设施 ；实物期权 ；管理弹性 ；投资决策
Abstract
Large shipbuilding facility is one of necessary facilities to build and repair the ship. So shipbuilding enterprises has always faced a investment decision-making problem of large shipbuilding facility. As a fixed asset investment of the shipbuilding enterprises, It accounts for higher percentages of investment cost, and it is one of the main factors which has a influence to the shipbuilding investment decision-making in the shipbuilding enterprises. And it is the prerequisite of shipbuilding enterprises’ existence. The investment of Large shipbuilding facility has its own special characterizes other than other kind of investment, such as massive investment; long period for investment; many managerial flexibilities and so on. All these make it difficult to solve the problem of Large shipbuilding facility investment with traditional investment decision method. As concerned as that，it is necessary to find a more suited and effective method to make Large shipbuilding facility investment decision. The paper adopts real option method to study the large shipbuilding facility investment decision.
(1)The paper introduced 8 real option types including waiting option, mounting option, growth option, abandon option, subsection option, size option, conversion option and combination option. It analysis the characteristics and the real option features of large shipbuilding facility investment decision making in detail. Compared with traditional investment decision-making method of analysis , the paper expounds the application of advantages of real option method in the investment decision-making, the real options method can supplement and correct the implicit value of the management flexibility which is ignored by the traditional investment decision-making. Therefore, the paper chooses real option method for large shipbuilding facility investment decisions.
(2) In the specific application of real options method for large-scale investment decisions, the paper recognizes the main types of real option in shipbuilding enterprises investment decisions according to the life cycle theory and affects of uncertainty. It contains four main types: the elastic of expanding the inductive shipbuilding ability and growth option, the elastic of mount or not and mount options, the elastic of investment timing and waiting option, the elastic of exiting and abandon option.
(3) For ease of real options approach in large shipbuilding facility investment decision, the paper constructs corresponding option pricing model for four option types and verified through case analysis. Compared with traditional investment decision-making method contrast, it verifies the advantages of the method. The paper is instructive for shipbuilding industry investment decisions.
Keywords: Large shipbuilding facility; Real Options; managerial flexibility; investment decision making
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景和意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究目的及意义 2
1.2 国内外研究综述 3
1.2.1 实物期权研究综述 3
1.2.2 造船业投资决策研究综述 5
1.3 论文思路和创新点 6
1.3.1 研究思路 6
1.3.2 研究内容 7
1.3.3 论文创新点 8
第2章 相关概念与理论 9
2.1 实物期权的含义 9
2.1.1 金融期权的概念 9
2.1.2 实物期权的含义及种类 10
2.1.3 金融期权与实物期权的比较 12
2.1.4 实物期权的应用前提 14
2.2 实物期权定价模型 15
2.2.1 基本模型的重要原..
大型造船设施是造修船必备的关键设施，因此造船企业总是面临着大型造船设施投资决策问题。作为造船企业的一项固定资产投资，它占造船企业投资成本的较高比例，它是造船企业进行造船投资决策的主要影响因素，是造船企业赖以存在的前提。由于大型造船设施投资本身也存在着许多与其他投资项目不同的特点，如投资规模大、期限长、管理弹性多等特点，决定了传统投资决策方法无法圆满解决大型造船设施投资决策问题。因此有必要为大型造船设施投资决策寻找一种更为适用和有效的投资决策方法，论文采用实物期权方法对大型造船设施投资决策进行了研究。
（1）论文介绍了等待期权、悬置期权、增长期权、放弃期权、分段期权、规模期权、转换期权及组合期权等8种实物期权类型，详细分析大型造船设施投资决策的特点及其实物期权特征。通过与传统投资决策方法的对比分析，阐述了实物期权方法在投资决策中的应用优势，实物期权方法能够补充和修正传统投资决策评价方法所忽视的投资者管理弹性所包含的价值。因此本文选择实物期权方法对大型造船设施投资决策进行研究。
（2）在具体应用实物期权方法进行大型造船设施投资决策时，论文根据生命周期理论以及影响造船企业投资决策的不确定性因素，对造船企业各个生命周期中所具有的主要的实物期权类型进行了识别。将大型造船设施投资决策中所存在的各种管理弹性及其对应的实物期权类型主要归纳为四种：扩大造船能力的弹性与战略性的增长期权、停运与否的弹性与悬置期权、投资时机选择弹性与等待期权以及退出弹性与放弃期权。
（3）为便于实物期权方法在大型造船设施投资决策中的应用，论文分别为这四种期权类型建立了相应期权计价模型并通过案例进行分析验证。通过与传统投资决策方法的对比，验证了该方法的优越性，这对我国造船业投资决策具有借鉴意义。
关键词 大型造船设施 ；实物期权 ；管理弹性 ；投资决策
Abstract
Large shipbuilding facility is one of necessary facilities to build and repair the ship. So shipbuilding enterprises has always faced a investment decision-making problem of large shipbuilding facility. As a fixed asset investment of the shipbuilding enterprises, It accounts for higher percentages of investment cost, and it is one of the main factors which has a influence to the shipbuilding investment decision-making in the shipbuilding enterprises. And it is the prerequisite of shipbuilding enterprises’ existence. The investment of Large shipbuilding facility has its own special characterizes other than other kind of investment, such as massive investment; long period for investment; many managerial flexibilities and so on. All these make it difficult to solve the problem of Large shipbuilding facility investment with traditional investment decision method. As concerned as that，it is necessary to find a more suited and effective method to make Large shipbuilding facility investment decision. The paper adopts real option method to study the large shipbuilding facility investment decision.
(1)The paper introduced 8 real option types including waiting option, mounting option, growth option, abandon option, subsection option, size option, conversion option and combination option. It analysis the characteristics and the real option features of large shipbuilding facility investment decision making in detail. Compared with traditional investment decision-making method of analysis , the paper expounds the application of advantages of real option method in the investment decision-making, the real options method can supplement and correct the implicit value of the management flexibility which is ignored by the traditional investment decision-making. Therefore, the paper chooses real option method for large shipbuilding facility investment decisions.
(2) In the specific application of real options method for large-scale investment decisions, the paper recognizes the main types of real option in shipbuilding enterprises investment decisions according to the life cycle theory and affects of uncertainty. It contains four main types: the elastic of expanding the inductive shipbuilding ability and growth option, the elastic of mount or not and mount options, the elastic of investment timing and waiting option, the elastic of exiting and abandon option.
(3) For ease of real options approach in large shipbuilding facility investment decision, the paper constructs corresponding option pricing model for four option types and verified through case analysis. Compared with traditional investment decision-making method contrast, it verifies the advantages of the method. The paper is instructive for shipbuilding industry investment decisions.
Keywords: Large shipbuilding facility; Real Options; managerial flexibility; investment decision making
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景和意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究目的及意义 2
1.2 国内外研究综述 3
1.2.1 实物期权研究综述 3
1.2.2 造船业投资决策研究综述 5
1.3 论文思路和创新点 6
1.3.1 研究思路 6
1.3.2 研究内容 7
1.3.3 论文创新点 8
第2章 相关概念与理论 9
2.1 实物期权的含义 9
2.1.1 金融期权的概念 9
2.1.2 实物期权的含义及种类 10
2.1.3 金融期权与实物期权的比较 12
2.1.4 实物期权的应用前提 14
2.2 实物期权定价模型 15
2.2.1 基本模型的重要原..
