《加工贸易与经济增长：基于中国的实证分析》外文翻译.doc

摘要

目前，加工贸易已成为中国的主要贸易方式。为了弄清加工贸易与中国经济增长的关系，本文以中国1985年到2007年的统计数据为基础，通过采用协整理论，格兰杰因果关系检验和误差修正模型（EMC），分别考察了加工贸易进口和出口与经济增长的关系。实证结果表示加工贸易进口与经济增长之间存在单方面的格兰杰因果关系。加工贸易进口影响了GDP的增长。在短期内，加工贸易进口和加工贸易出口均刺激了GDP的增长，但这种影响比较低；很长一段时间里，加工贸易进口显著地促进了GDP的增长，而加工贸易出口限制了GDP的增长。

关键词：加工贸易；中国；经济增长；实证分析

ABSTRACT

Presently, processing trade has become China’s major trade method. In order to make clear the relationship between processing trade and China’s economic growth, this paper, based on China’s statistical data from 1985 to 2007,by employ co-integration theory, Granger causality test and error correction model(ECM),respectively investigates the relationship between processing trade import ,processing trade export and economic growth .The empirical result denotes that exists unilateral granger causality relationship between processing trade import and economic growth. Processing trade import influences the growth of GDP. For a shot period, processing trade import and processing trade export both spur the growth of GDP, but the impact is comparatively low; for a long period, processing trade import remarkably promotes the growth of GDP, while processing trade export restricts the growth of GDP.


KEYWORDS：processing trade ; China; economic growth; evidence
字数：5068个
页数：14页