生产提前期.doc
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生产提前期,摘 要牛鞭效应现象是企业呈现类似供应链牛鞭效应的现象。的准确制定对企业生产计划的制定和控制意义重大，但牛鞭效应现象使企业面临计划“神经质”的困境，产生对客户准时交单的担忧。因此，牛鞭效应问题是企业必须正视和解决的问题。本文在深入分析供应链牛鞭效应研究现状和牛鞭...
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摘 要
生产提前期牛鞭效应现象是企业生产提前期呈现类似供应链牛鞭效应的现象。生产提前期的准确制定对企业生产计划的制定和控制意义重大，但生产提前期牛鞭效应现象使企业面临计划“神经质”的困境，产生对客户准时交单的担忧。因此，生产提前期牛鞭效应问题是企业必须正视和解决的问题。本文在深入分析供应链牛鞭效应研究现状和生产提前期牛鞭效应产生环境的基础上，详细研究了生产提前期牛鞭效应的形成机理、影响因素、测度技术和控制方法问题。
围绕生产提前期牛鞭效应的形成机理，本文充分考虑实际生产系统的各种不确定因素，得出通过时间综合症是其产生因素，并从经济学、行为学、制造业的生产方式这三个角度分析了对生产提前期牛鞭效应的影响，总结了生产提前期牛鞭效应和供应链牛鞭效应的联系与区别，从而构建了生产提前期牛鞭效应测度和控制的理论基础；围绕生产提前期牛鞭效应的测度技术，本文分析了随机Petri网（SPN）建模的优势，并运用模糊理论，提出在不确定条件下SPN建立的方法和步骤，建立了有效的测度公式，结合产品生产的运作算例测度了提前期牛鞭效应；针对生产提前期牛鞭效应的控制方法，本文从和谐管理理论体系的思想出发，构建了提前期牛鞭效应的控制分析框架。着重研究了管理不确定因素的关键链缓冲设置方法，从而为企业有效控制提前期牛鞭效应提供技术和引导工具。
为了系统地将研究的理论和方法应用于制造企业中，本文以镇江船用柴油机厂为案例背景，将提出的测度方法应用于曲轴加工车间，并针对该公司存在的影响提前期的问题，给予提前期牛鞭效应控制的一般策略。验证了测度技术和控制方法的实际操作意义。
关键词：生产提前期牛鞭效应；形成机理；不确定因素；随机Petri网；和谐管理；缓冲
Abstract
The phenomenon of production lead time bullwhip effect is similar to the bullwhip effect in supply chain. Correctly determining production lead time is of great significance to making and control production plan. However, production lead time bullwhip effect puts enterprises in an awful predicament, in which enterprises are faced with plan neuroticism, and causes anxiety about delivering goods to customers in time. Therefore, production lead time bullwhip effect is a problem on which enterprises must pay seriously attention and give proper treatment. Based on analyzing the research status quo of bullwhip effect and the environment of production lead time bullwhip effect in a deep going way, this thesis studies formation mechanism, influence factors, measurement techniques and controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect in detail.
For studying formation mechanism of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis considers all kinds of uncertain factors in actual production systems, and thus derives that the creating factor is “passing time syndrome”. Furthermore, how to impact production lead time bullwhip effect is proposed in economics, behavioristics and the mode of manufacturing production angles. Based on above analysis, this thesis summarizes relations and differences between production lead time bullwhip effect and supply chain bullwhip effect. Thereby, theoretical principle about measurement and control is rightly presented. For studying measurement techniques of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis analyzes the strength of stochastic Petri nets (SPN) in modeling, combined with fuzzy theory, and then it develops methods and procedures of building SPN under uncertain conditions. Meanwhile, it establishes a useful measure formula to judge the degree of production lead time bullwhip effect, which is used in a production process case. For studying controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis borrows ideas of harmonious management theory, and brings about a controlling framework. Concerned on uncertain factors in production, a corresponding setting method about buffer in critical chain is carefully designed. To some extent, this method provides enterprises an effective technology and a guiding tool, by which to mitigate production lead time bullwhip effect.
In order to systematically apply these theories and methods to manufacturing enterprises, this thesis finally chooses Zhenjiang Diesel Engine Factory as empirical research. Proposed measurement method is used in bent axle processing workshop, and thus production lead time bullwhip effect is proved. On the other hand, controlling tactics about production lead time bullwhip effect is suggested to the company based on the existing problems of lead time. This case demonstrates that measurement techniques and controlling means have practical significance.
Key words production lead time bullwhip effect; formation mechanism; uncertain factors; stochastic Petri nets; harmonious management; buffer
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究的背景及意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 2
1.2.1 牛鞭效应的存在与成因 2
1.2.2 牛鞭效应的量化问题 4
1.2.3 牛鞭效应的减弱与控制 4
1.3 研究内容、方法及创新点 6
1.3.1 研究内容 6
1.3.2 研究方法 7
1.3.3 创新点 8
第2章 生产提前期牛鞭效应问题的相关理论 9
2.1 随机Petri网技术 9
2.1.1 随机Petri网介绍 9
2.1.2 随机Petri网的分析方法 10
2.2 模糊数的随机P..
生产提前期牛鞭效应现象是企业生产提前期呈现类似供应链牛鞭效应的现象。生产提前期的准确制定对企业生产计划的制定和控制意义重大，但生产提前期牛鞭效应现象使企业面临计划“神经质”的困境，产生对客户准时交单的担忧。因此，生产提前期牛鞭效应问题是企业必须正视和解决的问题。本文在深入分析供应链牛鞭效应研究现状和生产提前期牛鞭效应产生环境的基础上，详细研究了生产提前期牛鞭效应的形成机理、影响因素、测度技术和控制方法问题。
围绕生产提前期牛鞭效应的形成机理，本文充分考虑实际生产系统的各种不确定因素，得出通过时间综合症是其产生因素，并从经济学、行为学、制造业的生产方式这三个角度分析了对生产提前期牛鞭效应的影响，总结了生产提前期牛鞭效应和供应链牛鞭效应的联系与区别，从而构建了生产提前期牛鞭效应测度和控制的理论基础；围绕生产提前期牛鞭效应的测度技术，本文分析了随机Petri网（SPN）建模的优势，并运用模糊理论，提出在不确定条件下SPN建立的方法和步骤，建立了有效的测度公式，结合产品生产的运作算例测度了提前期牛鞭效应；针对生产提前期牛鞭效应的控制方法，本文从和谐管理理论体系的思想出发，构建了提前期牛鞭效应的控制分析框架。着重研究了管理不确定因素的关键链缓冲设置方法，从而为企业有效控制提前期牛鞭效应提供技术和引导工具。
为了系统地将研究的理论和方法应用于制造企业中，本文以镇江船用柴油机厂为案例背景，将提出的测度方法应用于曲轴加工车间，并针对该公司存在的影响提前期的问题，给予提前期牛鞭效应控制的一般策略。验证了测度技术和控制方法的实际操作意义。
关键词：生产提前期牛鞭效应；形成机理；不确定因素；随机Petri网；和谐管理；缓冲
Abstract
The phenomenon of production lead time bullwhip effect is similar to the bullwhip effect in supply chain. Correctly determining production lead time is of great significance to making and control production plan. However, production lead time bullwhip effect puts enterprises in an awful predicament, in which enterprises are faced with plan neuroticism, and causes anxiety about delivering goods to customers in time. Therefore, production lead time bullwhip effect is a problem on which enterprises must pay seriously attention and give proper treatment. Based on analyzing the research status quo of bullwhip effect and the environment of production lead time bullwhip effect in a deep going way, this thesis studies formation mechanism, influence factors, measurement techniques and controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect in detail.
For studying formation mechanism of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis considers all kinds of uncertain factors in actual production systems, and thus derives that the creating factor is “passing time syndrome”. Furthermore, how to impact production lead time bullwhip effect is proposed in economics, behavioristics and the mode of manufacturing production angles. Based on above analysis, this thesis summarizes relations and differences between production lead time bullwhip effect and supply chain bullwhip effect. Thereby, theoretical principle about measurement and control is rightly presented. For studying measurement techniques of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis analyzes the strength of stochastic Petri nets (SPN) in modeling, combined with fuzzy theory, and then it develops methods and procedures of building SPN under uncertain conditions. Meanwhile, it establishes a useful measure formula to judge the degree of production lead time bullwhip effect, which is used in a production process case. For studying controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis borrows ideas of harmonious management theory, and brings about a controlling framework. Concerned on uncertain factors in production, a corresponding setting method about buffer in critical chain is carefully designed. To some extent, this method provides enterprises an effective technology and a guiding tool, by which to mitigate production lead time bullwhip effect.
In order to systematically apply these theories and methods to manufacturing enterprises, this thesis finally chooses Zhenjiang Diesel Engine Factory as empirical research. Proposed measurement method is used in bent axle processing workshop, and thus production lead time bullwhip effect is proved. On the other hand, controlling tactics about production lead time bullwhip effect is suggested to the company based on the existing problems of lead time. This case demonstrates that measurement techniques and controlling means have practical significance.
Key words production lead time bullwhip effect; formation mechanism; uncertain factors; stochastic Petri nets; harmonious management; buffer
目 录
摘 要 I
Abstract II
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 研究的背景及意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 1
1.2 国内外研究现状 2
1.2.1 牛鞭效应的存在与成因 2
1.2.2 牛鞭效应的量化问题 4
1.2.3 牛鞭效应的减弱与控制 4
1.3 研究内容、方法及创新点 6
1.3.1 研究内容 6
1.3.2 研究方法 7
1.3.3 创新点 8
第2章 生产提前期牛鞭效应问题的相关理论 9
2.1 随机Petri网技术 9
2.1.1 随机Petri网介绍 9
2.1.2 随机Petri网的分析方法 10
2.2 模糊数的随机P..
