唐山地区平改项目的风险分析与评价论文.doc

唐山地区平改项目的风险分析与评价论文

摘  要
平改是我国城市化进程快速发展的必然结果，是非常值得关注的社会问题。近年来唐山地区城市化进程不断加快，其中存在日益严峻的风险问题，已成为可能影响城市协调发展、功能快速提升和市民生活质量进一步改善的突显问题。
本论文在对唐山地区部分平改项目进行实地调研的基础上，结合风险管理的基础理论，对唐山地区平改项目前期阶段的风险进行了识别，重点对其风险进行了分析与评价，并采用故障树的方法对唐山地区某具体平改项目进行的风险的分析与评价，且给出结论。本论文还提出了完善平改工作的相关思路与建议，既可在理论上深化平改项目中的风险问题，又可在实践中为平改项目提供一条可行的分析路径。

关键词: 平改  风险  识别  分析与评价

   
    The Risk Analysis and eva luation on the Bungalow Transformation Project in Tangshan Regions

Abstract
The bungalow transformation project is an inevitable result of the rapid development of China's urbanization process，which is a social problem of great concerns. In recent years, Tangshan has been accelerating the urbanization process, in which there are increasingly serious risks. These risks have become outstanding problems that may affect the coordinated development and the rapidly function improvement, and hamper the life quality of the public to improve further.
According to the basic theory of risk management, this thesis identified its risks factors in the early stage, based on the practice investigation of the bungalow transformation project in Tangshan regions. Then this paper mainly analyzed and eva luated its risks, actually applied in a specific bungalow transformation project by using the Fault Tree method, and given the conclusion. The paper also proposed ideas and suggestions to improve other bungalow transformation projects, not only enriched the risk theory in the way, but also provided a feasible path for the bungalow transformation projects in practice.
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Key words: bungalow transformation; risk; identification; analysis and eva luation

目录
1 引言 1
1.1选题的背景 2
1.2研究目的和意义 2
1.2.1研究目的 2
1.2.2研究意义 3
1.3唐山平改状况 3
1.4研究设计 5
1.4.1研究思路 5
1.4.2研究方法 5
2 唐山地区平改项目风险管理的理论基础 5
2.1风险、风险管理 5
2.2风险的特点与分类 6
2.2.1风险的特点 6
2.2.2风险的分类 6
2.3风险管理的过程 7
2.4平改前期 9
2.4.1前期策划的过程 9
2.4.2前期策划应注意的问题 11
3 唐山地区平改项目风险的识别 11
3.1平改风险识别综述 11
3.2整体平改风险因素 12
4 唐山地区平改项目的风险分析评价 16
4.1分析评价的现状 16
4.2分析评价的过程 17
4.3分析评价的方法 19
5 唐山地区平改项目风险的实例分析 20
5.1故障树分析法 20
5.1.1故障树的定性分析 22
5.1.2故障树的定量分析 23
5.2实例分析 24
6 结束语 30
谢辞 32
参考文献 33