交通事故分析的可能性和局限性_外文翻译.doc
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交通事故分析的可能性和局限性_外文翻译,摘要交通事故的统计数字，尤其国家一级的数据对监控和预测事故的发展，积极或消极检测事故的发展，以及对定义安全目标和评估工业安全特别有益。事故分析是应用非常有限的分析，是前瞻性分析和回顾性分析，能够对新开发的交通安全系统和特殊过程的安全措施进行评价。目前迫切需要一个将实时事故分析与研究相结合的行为。将自动检测和视频录制相结...
内容介绍
此文档由会员 莎士比亚 发布
摘要
交通事故的统计数字，尤其国家一级的数据对监控和预测事故的发展，积极或消极检测事故的发展，以及对定义安全目标和评估工业安全特别有益。事故分析是应用非常有限的分析，是前瞻性分析和回顾性分析，能够对新开发的交通安全系统和特殊过程的安全措施进行评价。目前迫切需要一个将实时事故分析与研究相结合的行为。将自动检测和视频录制相结合的研究交通事故的科研论文会比较容易接受。这种类型的研究最终会对交通理念有个完善的认识。
关键字：后果;目的;描述;限制;关注;事故分析;可能性
1．简介
本文主要是基于个人的经验，研究有关交通安全、安全分析以及事故分析等在研究中的作用。由这些经验推导出的哲学思考就像通过研究和统计得出的实践观点。而这些调查数字已经在其他地方发表了。
在缺少直接观察的事故中，许多方法论问题的产生，导致不能直接测试对结果持续讨论。通过看事故视频来讨论是富有成效的。事实证明，用来解释事故的大部分有关信息就是事故中缺少的记录。深入研究还无法回忆起所有的必要的用来测试有关事故发生的假设数据，。尤其是车-车相撞发生的车祸，这是在荷兰城市道路交叉口录制的视频，一辆从岔路驶来的汽车与主干路的汽车相撞，下列问题可以问：为什么汽车来自次干路上，突然加速后又几乎停止，撞上了在左侧主路的一辆汽车呢？为什么没有注意到正在驶来的车？是不是因为两车从右边驶来，司机因为前面的交叉为他们提供了可能性而斤斤计较？难道他向左看过，但他认为停在拐角处的绿色货车能让他停下来？当然，交通状况并不复杂。目前这个事故中没有骑自行车或行人在拥挤路口分散他的注意。如果停着的绿色车能够在五分钟内消失，这两辆车可能就不会相撞。在事故发生的相关条件下，几乎不可能观察下一个交通行为，因为交通事故是不可预见的。由于新的视频设备和自动检测事故设备的不断发展，如在收集数据方面不需要很高的成本就能变得越来越逼真。必要的增加数据类型也能更好的解释交通中存在的危险因素。关于事故分析的可能性和限制性的问题是不容易回答的，我们不能确切的分析交通事故。因为事故分析涵盖了每一个活动中的不同背景，并根据不同的信息来源范围来补充资料，特别是收集事故的数据，背景资料等，我们首先要看看在交通安全领域的活动周期然后再回答事故分析的可能性与限制。这些行为主要是与交通系统的安全管理有关，有些则是相关的研究活动。
Abstraet
Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product) eva luation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for (process) eva luation of special short term and small scale safety measures. There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in combination with background behavioural research. Automatic incident detection, combined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research. This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to well-established theories.
Keyword：Consequences; purposes; describe; Limitations; concerned; Accident Analysis; possibilities
1. Introduction.
This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere.
From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record. In-depth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the accident.For a particular car-car accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car coming from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car coming from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after coming almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars coming from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not complicated. At the moment of the accident there were no bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded intersection. The parked green van disappeared within five ..
交通事故的统计数字，尤其国家一级的数据对监控和预测事故的发展，积极或消极检测事故的发展，以及对定义安全目标和评估工业安全特别有益。事故分析是应用非常有限的分析，是前瞻性分析和回顾性分析，能够对新开发的交通安全系统和特殊过程的安全措施进行评价。目前迫切需要一个将实时事故分析与研究相结合的行为。将自动检测和视频录制相结合的研究交通事故的科研论文会比较容易接受。这种类型的研究最终会对交通理念有个完善的认识。
关键字：后果;目的;描述;限制;关注;事故分析;可能性
1．简介
本文主要是基于个人的经验，研究有关交通安全、安全分析以及事故分析等在研究中的作用。由这些经验推导出的哲学思考就像通过研究和统计得出的实践观点。而这些调查数字已经在其他地方发表了。
在缺少直接观察的事故中，许多方法论问题的产生，导致不能直接测试对结果持续讨论。通过看事故视频来讨论是富有成效的。事实证明，用来解释事故的大部分有关信息就是事故中缺少的记录。深入研究还无法回忆起所有的必要的用来测试有关事故发生的假设数据，。尤其是车-车相撞发生的车祸，这是在荷兰城市道路交叉口录制的视频，一辆从岔路驶来的汽车与主干路的汽车相撞，下列问题可以问：为什么汽车来自次干路上，突然加速后又几乎停止，撞上了在左侧主路的一辆汽车呢？为什么没有注意到正在驶来的车？是不是因为两车从右边驶来，司机因为前面的交叉为他们提供了可能性而斤斤计较？难道他向左看过，但他认为停在拐角处的绿色货车能让他停下来？当然，交通状况并不复杂。目前这个事故中没有骑自行车或行人在拥挤路口分散他的注意。如果停着的绿色车能够在五分钟内消失，这两辆车可能就不会相撞。在事故发生的相关条件下，几乎不可能观察下一个交通行为，因为交通事故是不可预见的。由于新的视频设备和自动检测事故设备的不断发展，如在收集数据方面不需要很高的成本就能变得越来越逼真。必要的增加数据类型也能更好的解释交通中存在的危险因素。关于事故分析的可能性和限制性的问题是不容易回答的，我们不能确切的分析交通事故。因为事故分析涵盖了每一个活动中的不同背景，并根据不同的信息来源范围来补充资料，特别是收集事故的数据，背景资料等，我们首先要看看在交通安全领域的活动周期然后再回答事故分析的可能性与限制。这些行为主要是与交通系统的安全管理有关，有些则是相关的研究活动。
Abstraet
Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product) eva luation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for (process) eva luation of special short term and small scale safety measures. There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in combination with background behavioural research. Automatic incident detection, combined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research. This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to well-established theories.
Keyword：Consequences; purposes; describe; Limitations; concerned; Accident Analysis; possibilities
1. Introduction.
This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere.
From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record. In-depth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the accident.For a particular car-car accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car coming from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car coming from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after coming almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars coming from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not complicated. At the moment of the accident there were no bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded intersection. The parked green van disappeared within five ..
