人民币升值对我国纺织品出口影响研究.doc

摘  要

　　　纺织品行业是我国仅次于电子通信行业的第二大出口行业，出口依存度高达51%,而且其不断扩大的国际市场份额又是建立在劳动力成本和价格优势之上的。人民币升值将使我国纺织品出口受到巨大的影响，大大削弱纺织产品在国际市场上的竞争力，导致国内纺织企业的恶性竞争,因此，人民币升值必将对严重依赖国际市场出口的我国纺织行业产生巨大的压力。我国纺织品行业应该提高生产科技水平，提升产品的附加值，调整产品结构，树立品牌观念，促进产业结构升级，增强企业在国际市场上的核心竞争力。

　　　本文主要对我国纺织品出口现状、特点、问题和人民币升值的主要原因进行了简要分析,在理论分析的基础上，通过建立包括我国纺织品出口总额、人民币兑美元的实际有效汇率、我国国内生产总值、主要贸易伙伴GDP总和在内的多元回归模型，用实证分析的方法分析了人民币升值对我国纺织品出口存在影响，并针对人民币升值对我国纺织品出口的不利影响提出相关的解决方案和建议，从而使我国纺织行业在人民币升值的环境下能够得到更快、更稳健的发展。

关键词: 人民币升值； 纺织品出口；纺织业；竞争力

  

ABSTRACT

     

Textile industry whose export dependence is up to 51% is a traditional industry in China’s exports, which ranks only second to the E-communication industry. And its continuously expanding international market share is based on the labor cost advantage and competitive price.  So, the RMB’s appreciation will greatly diminish China textile and clothing products’ competitiveness in the international market，simultaneously aggravate the vicious competition within the domestic textile industries. To handle the problem, we textile industry should promote the producing condition and the technical level, improve the additional value of the products, adjust the product mix and set up the brand-oriented sense to upgrade the industrial structure and enhance the core competence of enterprise in international market.

This paper gives a brief analysis to the present situations, characteristics and exiting problems of the textile industry. On the basis of theory, it designs a multivariate model including the total exports of our textile industry, the real effective exchange rate between RMB and American dollar, our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the total GDP wealth of our main trade partners.  In addition, the paper takes instances to explain the two-side influences of the RMB’s appreciation on the export of textile products. Besides, some possible measures and advices are presented to the bad side, by which China would keep its textile industry have a faster and more stable development under the effect of RMB’s appreciation. 

Keywords：appreciation of RMB； textile exports；  textile industry；  competitive power

目    录

引言……………………………………………….. …………………………………..1

1 我国纺织品出口的现状和问题……………………………………...2

1.1 我国纺织品出口现状…………………………………………………....2

1.2 我国纺织品出口的特点 ……………………………………………....2

1.3 我国纺织品出口企业面临的问题…………………………….….…4

2 人民币升值的原因分析……………………………………………...….4

2.1 外部因素………………………………….. ……………………………........5

2.2 内部因素…………………………………………………………………..…..5

3 人民币升值对我国纺织品出口的影响分析…………….….....6

3.1 人民币升值对我国纺织品出口的不利影响…………………....6

3.1.1 价格优势削弱…………………………………………………………...6

3.1.2 企业出口效益降低………………………………………………..…..7

3.1.3 竞争将更趋激烈……………………………………………………..…7

3.1.4 出口汇率风险增加………………………………………………..…..7

3.1.5 加大企业就业压力………………………………………………........8

3.1.6 导致纺织生产产业转移和外商投资转移……………………8

3.2 人民币升值对我国纺织品出口的有利影响………………..…8

3.2.1 减轻进口能源和原料的成本负担…………………………..…..8

3.2.2 有利于我国纺织行业结构的调整………………………………8

3.2.3 减少贸易摩擦和改善贸易环境……………………………….....9

3.2.4 增加对外投资……………………………………………………….....9

4 人民币升值对我国纺织品出口影响的实证分析………….9

5 我国纺织业应对人民币升值的对策………………….………...13

5.1 加速转型调整产业结构………………………………………….…..13

5.2 实施“走出去”战略，规避壁垒………………………………..13

5.3 加强行业自律组织建设,减少恶性竞争的出现…………....14

5.4 利用金融工具规避汇率风险……………………………..………..14

结束语……………………………………………………………………………..16

参考文献…………………………………………………………………..……..17

致谢………………………………………………………………………………...18