中国创业板上市公司成长性实证分析.doc

摘 要

2009年10月30日，首批28家创业板上市公司集中挂牌交易。对于热衷投资新兴板块的投资者来说，想全面了解上市公司的情况难以办到，而盲目追入只会带来“割肉”的痛苦。基于上述背景，本课题对创业板市场上市公司的成长因素进行分析，从盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力、资本规模、资本结构等方面选取具有代表性的指标，建立计量模型，运用EVIEWS5.1经济统计软件对成长性评价指标做回归分析，以评估上市公司的成长性，从而客观地鉴定创业板市场上市公司的成长状况和潜力。

本文试图在以下几方面形成特色、实现创新：

第一，对我国首批28家上市公司进行成长性实证分析。限于之前我国一直未推出创业板，缺乏创业板上市公司的数据，前人没有对我国创业板上市公司的成长性进行实证分析。本文开始写作时正值我国创业板正式推出，对本文进行实证分析提供了现实基础。

第二，规范分析与实证分析的结合，本文先从理论阐述入手，然后评述其现状特点，结合我国创业板特点，选择适合我国创业板上市公司成长性评价指标体系，最后落实到实证分析层面，进一步验证其成长性，使其更具科学性、可操作性。

本文主要分为四个部分：第一部分为本文的开篇，即前言部分，主要介绍创业板、本文研究方法和预期成果，对国内外研究现状进行综述和评价；第二部分对创业板现状分析并建立了创业板上市公司的成长性评价体系。第三部分是实证研究部分。首先对样本选取、数据来源进行介绍，在论文中，也运用了必要的定性分析方法。论文运用EVIEWS5.1统计软件进行描述性统计分析等，然后，建立计量模型，运用回归方法，引入解释变量，得到对因变量影响显著的解释变量，以实证检验原假设。第四部分是对创业板上市公司的成长性评价做简单总结，并提出相关建议，同时，明确进一步研究的方向。

回归分析表明,创业板上市公司的净利润增长率与净资产收益率显著正相关,同时与资产负债率也呈正相关。结合实证分析的结果,对中小板块上市公司的进一步成长提出了一些建议。

关键词： 创业板；成长性；指标体系；回归模型

Empirical analysis of the growth Potential of the listed companies on China's GEM

Abstract

October 30, 2009, the first batch of the 28 GEM listed companies are trading. For investors keen to invest in new plates for listed companies to fully understand the situation it is difficult, and the blind pursuit of income will only lead to "flesh" of the pain. Based on the above background, the issues are listed on the GEM market analysis growth factors. From profitability, operational capacity, solvency, capital size, capital structure and other aspects of selecting representative indicators. econometric model, using EVIEWS5.1 software eva luation done on the growth regression analysis to assess the growth of listed companies, thus objective identification of GEM listed company's growth status and potential.

This paper attempts to form a feature in the following areas to achieve innovation:

First, the first batch of 28 Chinese listed companies Growth Analysis. Limited before the introduction of the GEM in China has not been the lack of data on companies listed on GEM, there is no previous GEM listed companies on China's growth for empirical analysis. This began writing at a time when China officially launched the GEM, the empirical analysis in this article provide a realistic basis.   Second, the standard combination of analysis and empirical analysis, this theoretical explanations start to start, and then reviewed the status of features, combined with the characteristics of venture board, select the appropriate country listed on the GEM of the growth of eva luation index system, and finally to the empirical analysis of the implementation level, to further verify its growth to make it more scientific and practical.

   This paper is divided into four parts: the first part of the opening of this paper, namely, the preamble, to introduce the GEM research methods and expected results of this paper, summarizes the situation at home and abroad and eva luation; the second part of the status of the GEM and GEM was established eva luation system of the company's growth. The third part is the empirical research component. First, the sample selection, data sources are described in the paper and applied the necessary qualitative analysis. Paper describes the use of statistical software EVIEWS5.1 statistical analysis, then, to establish quantitative model, the regression method, the introduction of explanatory variables, are significant effects on the dependent variable, explanatory variables, the empirical test of the original hypothesis. The fourth part is the growth of companies listed on GEM eva luation to do a brief summary and suggestions at the same time, a clear direction for further research.

Regression analysis showed that GEM listed companies net profit growth and return on equity was a significant positive correlation with both asset-liability ratio was positively correlated. The results of empirical analysis on small plates for further growth of listed companies made some suggestions.

Keywords: GEM; growth; index system; regression model