上市公司兼并收购可预测性研究.doc
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上市公司兼并收购可预测性研究,1万字 11页一、问题提出二、模型估计方法及样本选择1．模型方法2．样本选择变量选择三、模型估计及结果分析1、参数估计2．结果分析四、模型预测能力检验1．概率阈值(cutoff)的确定2．预测检验(1) 检验样本(2) 检验过程参考文献论文摘要公司并购预测与财务危机、盈利能力和股票价格等预测...
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上市公司兼并收购可预测性研究
1万字 11页
一、问题提出
二、模型估计方法及样本选择
1．模型方法
2．样本选择
变量选择
三、模型估计及结果分析
1、参数估计
2．结果分析
四、模型预测能力检验
1．概率阈值(Cutoff)的确定
2．预测检验
(1) 检验样本
(2) 检验过程
参考文献
论文摘要
公司并购预测与财务危机、盈利能力和股票价格等预测一样，是金融经济学理论与实务界一直关注和争论的问题。能否预测上市公司并购的发生，意味着能否依据公开信息战胜市场从而获取超额收益。本文采用Logit条件概率模型对我国A股市场1998年至1999年间发生的上市公司兼并收购进行了实证分析和检验。所得到的估计模型对并购的发生有较强的解释能力，但无法取得满意的预测结果。本文的结论支持股票市场半强式有效假说。
关键词：上市公司，兼并收购，预测
Abstract
Predicting takeover , like forecasting bankruptcy, profitability and stock price, is a hot issue full of deputes among financial economists and investors for long time. Whether takeover can be predicted, means whether excess profits can be gained according to public information. The paper studied the takeovers during 1998-1999 of Chinese A share listed company by means of Logit conditional probability model. The estimating model can strongly demonstrate the happening of the takeovers, yet satisfied prediction is not able to be achieved. The empirical results support the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis.
Key words：Listed Company, Takeover, Predictability
参考文献
[5] Lo, A. And MacKinlay ,A.C., 1997, "Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics 1
[6] Palepu , K.G., 1986, " Predicting takeover targets: A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting
and Economics 8
1万字 11页
一、问题提出
二、模型估计方法及样本选择
1．模型方法
2．样本选择
变量选择
三、模型估计及结果分析
1、参数估计
2．结果分析
四、模型预测能力检验
1．概率阈值(Cutoff)的确定
2．预测检验
(1) 检验样本
(2) 检验过程
参考文献
论文摘要
公司并购预测与财务危机、盈利能力和股票价格等预测一样，是金融经济学理论与实务界一直关注和争论的问题。能否预测上市公司并购的发生，意味着能否依据公开信息战胜市场从而获取超额收益。本文采用Logit条件概率模型对我国A股市场1998年至1999年间发生的上市公司兼并收购进行了实证分析和检验。所得到的估计模型对并购的发生有较强的解释能力，但无法取得满意的预测结果。本文的结论支持股票市场半强式有效假说。
关键词：上市公司，兼并收购，预测
Abstract
Predicting takeover , like forecasting bankruptcy, profitability and stock price, is a hot issue full of deputes among financial economists and investors for long time. Whether takeover can be predicted, means whether excess profits can be gained according to public information. The paper studied the takeovers during 1998-1999 of Chinese A share listed company by means of Logit conditional probability model. The estimating model can strongly demonstrate the happening of the takeovers, yet satisfied prediction is not able to be achieved. The empirical results support the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis.
Key words：Listed Company, Takeover, Predictability
参考文献
[5] Lo, A. And MacKinlay ,A.C., 1997, "Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics 1
[6] Palepu , K.G., 1986, " Predicting takeover targets: A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting
and Economics 8
