瑞银集团研报：聚焦中国[外文翻译].rar
瑞银集团研报：聚焦中国[外文翻译],瑞银集团研报：聚焦中国——中国对“热钱”的担忧程度应该有多大？[外文翻译]ubs investment research: china focus——how much should china be worried about “hot money”？内包含中文翻译和英文原文，内容完善，建议下载阅览。①中文页数9中文字...
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瑞银集团研报：聚焦中国——中国对“热钱”的担忧程度应该有多大？[外文翻译]
UBS Investment Research: China Focus
——How Much Should China Be Worried about “Hot Money”？
内包含中文翻译和英文原文，内容完善，建议下载阅览。
①中文页数9
中文字数4914
②英文页数11
英文字数2601
③ 摘要
在最近几个月里，中国的外汇储备继续以稳定的速度增加。最新的数据显示，“热钱”流入可能加速。这和其他经济体最近动荡的货币市场一起，导致“热钱”在中国引起爆炸性的讨论和担心。大量关于“热钱”流入规模的估计已经公开，这敲响了大量资金可能外流的警钟。只是中国对“热钱”流入和流出的担心到底应该有多大？我们的观点如下：
最近几个月里，“热钱”流入规模迅速崛起，但其总体规模（3000-4000亿美元）与一些人的看法并非一样。虽然刺激各种外汇流入中国的因素增加，但这些外汇不太可能以预先确定的人民币/美元汇率大规模流出，也似乎与股票市场无关。总体外汇规模积累的速度已经并将继续扰乱货币政策，破坏宏观政策的公正性，但由于中期的结构性问题，其影响可能会更加间接。因为中国想要继续保持稳定的汇率和独立的货币政策，因此，严格的资本管制势在必行，管制措施必将出台。
China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate at a quite substantial pace in recent months, and the latest data show that “hot money” inflows may have accelerated. This and the recent currency market turmoil in other economies have led to an explosion of discussions and concerns about “hot money” in China. A wide range of estimates on the size of the hot money inflows have flocked to the public arena and alarm bells about possible large outflows rang loud. Just how much should China worry about “hot money” inflows and outflows? Here is what we think：
“Hot money” inflows have risen rapidly in recent months, but the overall size ($300-$400 billion) is not nearly as large as some believe. While the incentives for all sorts of FX inflows to China have risen, they will not likely move out en mass at a certain pre-determined RMB/USD exchange rate and do not seem to be associated with the equity market. The speed of the overall FX accumulation has and will continue to complicate monetary policy and undermine the macro policy objective, but its impact may be felt more indirectly, as structural problems in the medium-term. Since China wants to retain its exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, stricter capital control measures may be in the pipeline.
④关键字 热钱/Hot Money
UBS Investment Research: China Focus
——How Much Should China Be Worried about “Hot Money”？
内包含中文翻译和英文原文，内容完善，建议下载阅览。
①中文页数9
中文字数4914
②英文页数11
英文字数2601
③ 摘要
在最近几个月里，中国的外汇储备继续以稳定的速度增加。最新的数据显示，“热钱”流入可能加速。这和其他经济体最近动荡的货币市场一起，导致“热钱”在中国引起爆炸性的讨论和担心。大量关于“热钱”流入规模的估计已经公开，这敲响了大量资金可能外流的警钟。只是中国对“热钱”流入和流出的担心到底应该有多大？我们的观点如下：
最近几个月里，“热钱”流入规模迅速崛起，但其总体规模（3000-4000亿美元）与一些人的看法并非一样。虽然刺激各种外汇流入中国的因素增加，但这些外汇不太可能以预先确定的人民币/美元汇率大规模流出，也似乎与股票市场无关。总体外汇规模积累的速度已经并将继续扰乱货币政策，破坏宏观政策的公正性，但由于中期的结构性问题，其影响可能会更加间接。因为中国想要继续保持稳定的汇率和独立的货币政策，因此，严格的资本管制势在必行，管制措施必将出台。
China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate at a quite substantial pace in recent months, and the latest data show that “hot money” inflows may have accelerated. This and the recent currency market turmoil in other economies have led to an explosion of discussions and concerns about “hot money” in China. A wide range of estimates on the size of the hot money inflows have flocked to the public arena and alarm bells about possible large outflows rang loud. Just how much should China worry about “hot money” inflows and outflows? Here is what we think：
“Hot money” inflows have risen rapidly in recent months, but the overall size ($300-$400 billion) is not nearly as large as some believe. While the incentives for all sorts of FX inflows to China have risen, they will not likely move out en mass at a certain pre-determined RMB/USD exchange rate and do not seem to be associated with the equity market. The speed of the overall FX accumulation has and will continue to complicate monetary policy and undermine the macro policy objective, but its impact may be felt more indirectly, as structural problems in the medium-term. Since China wants to retain its exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, stricter capital control measures may be in the pipeline.
④关键字 热钱/Hot Money
