某市停车需求预测及停车设施规划管理研究.doc
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某市停车需求预测及停车设施规划管理研究,17000字自己原创的毕业论文，已经通过校内系统检测，重复率低，仅在本站独家出售，大家放心下载使用摘要 随着国民经济的快速发展，我国车辆保有量迅速增加，许多城市都面临着严峻的停车规划和管理问题，停车场地的供给与停车需求严重失衡，且违规停车现象十分严重。停车泊位的供需矛盾日益突出，随...
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某市停车需求预测及停车设施规划管理研究
17000字
自己原创的毕业论文，已经通过校内系统检测，重复率低，仅在本站独家出售，大家放心下载使用
摘要 随着国民经济的快速发展，我国车辆保有量迅速增加，许多城市都面临着严峻的停车规划和管理问题，停车场地的供给与停车需求严重失衡，且违规停车现象十分严重。停车泊位的供需矛盾日益突出，随之而来的负面影响也越来越大，因此，如何解决好停车问题已十分迫切。
文章首先分析了中国城市的停车现状及其原因，总结了目前大中型城市的停车问题，特别是停车需求和停车场地供给间的总量失衡问题。其次借助于国内外相关研究，从停车需求基本概念出发，总结影响停车需求总量和需求分布的各方面因素；分析和归纳相关停车需求预测模型，并比较其适用性和优缺点。最后以某市为例，选取停车生成率模型，对某市未来五年的汽车保有量和停车需求总量进行预测。结果显示，未来五年，某市的汽车保有量将以平均每年18.28%的速度增长，随之而来的停车需求总量也在不断上升，汽车保有量与停车总需求（泊位数）的比例约为3.6:1。基于预测结果，从政策、经济、技术、规划建设等方面对某市未来的停车管理提出相关策略。
关键词：停车需求 影响因素 预测模型 管理策略
Abstract With the rapid development of national economy, car ownership in China increased rapidly. Many cities are faced with the grim problem of parking planning and management. Parking demand and the supply of parking spaces are unbalanced, and violation of parking phenomenon is very serious. The contradiction between supply and demand of parking garages is prominent increasingly. The subsequent negative impact is becoming bigger and bigger. Therefore, how to solve the parking problem is very urgent.
This paper analyzes the parking status quo and the reasons of China urban firstly, summary of the current large and medium-sized city parking problem, especially the problem of the amount of imbalance between demand and supply of parking spaces. Secondly, with the aid of related research at home and abroad, starting from the concept of parking demand, summarizes the facts that influence the parking total demand and demand distribution. Summarizes and analyzes related parking demand prediction model, and compares the applicability and advantages and disadvantages. At last, taking an example of Zhenjiang, selects parking generation rate model, forecasting the car ownership and total parking demand in the next five years of Zhenjiang. The results show, in the next five years, car ownership of Zhenjiang will growing at 18.28% a year on average. The amount of parking demand is also rising, car ownership and parking aggregate demand (berth) at a ratio of about 3.6:1. Based on the predicted results, from the policy, economy, technology, planning and construction, etc. strategies are put forward for the future of Zhenjiang parking management.
Key words parking demand influence factor prediction model management strategies
目 录
第一章 绪 论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.1.1中国城市的停车问题 1
1.1.2停车需求与供给间的失衡 2
1.2国内外停车需求与停车设施发展现状 3
1.2.1国外停车需求与停车设施规划研究 3
1.2.2国内停车需求与停车设施规划研究 4
1.3论文的研究意义 5
第二章 停车需求特性 6
2.1停车基本特性参数 6
2.2停车需求特性 6
2.3停车需求影响因素 7
2.3.1停车需求总量的影响因素 7
2.3.2停车需求分布的影响因素 8
第三章 停车需求预测方法 9
3.1停车需求预测模型 9
3.1.1停车生成率模型 9
3.1.2用地与交通影响分析模型 9
3.1.3土地利用模型 10
3.1.4出行吸引模型 11
3.1.5多元回归分析预测模型 12
3.2停车需求预测模型的优缺点比较 13
3.3基于泊位共享的停车需求预测 13
3.3.1停车泊位共享理论 13
3.3.2基于泊位共享的停车需求预测方法 15
第四章 以某市为例进行停车需求预测 16
4.1某市基本概况 16
4.2模型选择 16
4.3停车生成率模型的建立 16
4.4模型的实际应用 18
第五章 某市未来停车管理相关策略 23
结论 25
致谢 26
参考文献 27
17000字
自己原创的毕业论文，已经通过校内系统检测，重复率低，仅在本站独家出售，大家放心下载使用
摘要 随着国民经济的快速发展，我国车辆保有量迅速增加，许多城市都面临着严峻的停车规划和管理问题，停车场地的供给与停车需求严重失衡，且违规停车现象十分严重。停车泊位的供需矛盾日益突出，随之而来的负面影响也越来越大，因此，如何解决好停车问题已十分迫切。
文章首先分析了中国城市的停车现状及其原因，总结了目前大中型城市的停车问题，特别是停车需求和停车场地供给间的总量失衡问题。其次借助于国内外相关研究，从停车需求基本概念出发，总结影响停车需求总量和需求分布的各方面因素；分析和归纳相关停车需求预测模型，并比较其适用性和优缺点。最后以某市为例，选取停车生成率模型，对某市未来五年的汽车保有量和停车需求总量进行预测。结果显示，未来五年，某市的汽车保有量将以平均每年18.28%的速度增长，随之而来的停车需求总量也在不断上升，汽车保有量与停车总需求（泊位数）的比例约为3.6:1。基于预测结果，从政策、经济、技术、规划建设等方面对某市未来的停车管理提出相关策略。
关键词：停车需求 影响因素 预测模型 管理策略
Abstract With the rapid development of national economy, car ownership in China increased rapidly. Many cities are faced with the grim problem of parking planning and management. Parking demand and the supply of parking spaces are unbalanced, and violation of parking phenomenon is very serious. The contradiction between supply and demand of parking garages is prominent increasingly. The subsequent negative impact is becoming bigger and bigger. Therefore, how to solve the parking problem is very urgent.
This paper analyzes the parking status quo and the reasons of China urban firstly, summary of the current large and medium-sized city parking problem, especially the problem of the amount of imbalance between demand and supply of parking spaces. Secondly, with the aid of related research at home and abroad, starting from the concept of parking demand, summarizes the facts that influence the parking total demand and demand distribution. Summarizes and analyzes related parking demand prediction model, and compares the applicability and advantages and disadvantages. At last, taking an example of Zhenjiang, selects parking generation rate model, forecasting the car ownership and total parking demand in the next five years of Zhenjiang. The results show, in the next five years, car ownership of Zhenjiang will growing at 18.28% a year on average. The amount of parking demand is also rising, car ownership and parking aggregate demand (berth) at a ratio of about 3.6:1. Based on the predicted results, from the policy, economy, technology, planning and construction, etc. strategies are put forward for the future of Zhenjiang parking management.
Key words parking demand influence factor prediction model management strategies
目 录
第一章 绪 论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.1.1中国城市的停车问题 1
1.1.2停车需求与供给间的失衡 2
1.2国内外停车需求与停车设施发展现状 3
1.2.1国外停车需求与停车设施规划研究 3
1.2.2国内停车需求与停车设施规划研究 4
1.3论文的研究意义 5
第二章 停车需求特性 6
2.1停车基本特性参数 6
2.2停车需求特性 6
2.3停车需求影响因素 7
2.3.1停车需求总量的影响因素 7
2.3.2停车需求分布的影响因素 8
第三章 停车需求预测方法 9
3.1停车需求预测模型 9
3.1.1停车生成率模型 9
3.1.2用地与交通影响分析模型 9
3.1.3土地利用模型 10
3.1.4出行吸引模型 11
3.1.5多元回归分析预测模型 12
3.2停车需求预测模型的优缺点比较 13
3.3基于泊位共享的停车需求预测 13
3.3.1停车泊位共享理论 13
3.3.2基于泊位共享的停车需求预测方法 15
第四章 以某市为例进行停车需求预测 16
4.1某市基本概况 16
4.2模型选择 16
4.3停车生成率模型的建立 16
4.4模型的实际应用 18
第五章 某市未来停车管理相关策略 23
结论 25
致谢 26
参考文献 27
