xx市历年交通事故分析与对策措施的研究.doc

xx市历年交通事故分析与对策措施的研究

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摘 要
随着经济的迅速腾飞以及人民日益增长的物质文化需要，“交通”这一词汇并不陌生，已经彻底地走进了人们的生活中，它满足了人们出行的需要，它便捷、快速，深受欢迎。然而，交通作为国民经济和社会发展的基础性产业，其发展必须以安全为前提和保障，可现实却并不乐观。据官方数据统计，从2001年至今，我国每年因道路交通事故死亡的人数都在10万人左右，这远远超过了其他各类安全生产伤亡事故的死亡人数之和。
xx作为我国发展较好的城市，每年的交通事故更是屡见不鲜。因此，为了提高xx道路交通方面的研究水平和管理水平，减少道路交通事故的发生率，本文将对xx道路交通的现状、交通事故的成因进行全面探索，探讨针对交通事故成因的相应对策措施。
本文除了常规分析以外，主要运用了灰色关联分析方法计算研究了所统计的xx市交通事故的25个方面的数据与xx全市交通事故发生次数、xx全市受伤人数和xx全市死亡人数之间的关联性，分别得出与这三个方面相关联的因素的排序：对xx全市事故发生次数而言，主要是损失、人口数、道路、路灯和车辆；对xx全市受伤人数而言，主要是桥梁、损失、人口数、道路和车辆；对xx全市死亡人数而言，主要是桥梁、医疗、车辆、道路和人口数。对这些影响因素按由好到劣的顺序进行归类整合，最后主要从10个方面提出针对性的措施，分别是：人口数、道路、车辆、驾驶员、桥梁、运输、路灯、医疗、GRP和保险。希望能对改善xx的道路交通有所帮助。

关键词：交通安全；人；车辆；道路；成因分析；对策措施；灰色关联


ABSTRACT

With the rapid growth of our economy and the people’s growing material and cultural needs, ”traffic” is no stranger to the vocabulary, it has thoroughly into people’s lives, it meets the needs of people travel, it is convenient, fast and popular. However, traffic as economic and social development of basic industry, its development must be the premise of safety and security, the reality is not optimistic. According to official statistics, from 2001 to date, China’s annual number of death due to road traffic accidents are about 100 thousand people, this far exceeds the number of other types of death and casualties production safety.
As China’s development of better Zhenjiang city, traffic accidents every year is not uncommon. Therefore, in order to improve the level of research and management aspects of road traffic in Zhenjiang, reduce the incidence of road traffic accidents, This paper will present situation Zhenjiang road traffic accidents were fully explore the causes, explore appropriate countermeasures against the causes of traffic accidents.
In this paper, in addition to routine analysis, the main use of gray correlation analysis method to study the date to calculate the 25 aspects of the accident statistics of the city of Zhenjiang are associated with the number of traffic accidents in Zhenjiang city, Zhenjiang city injuries and Zhenjiang city’s death toll. Sort were obtained with these three factors associated: in terms of Zhenjiang city on the number of accidents, mainly losses, population, roads, street lights and vehicles; in terms of the number of injured of Zhenjiang city, mainly bridges, losses, population, roads and vehicles; in terms of the number of deaths of Zhenjiang city, mainly bridges, health care, vehicles, roads and population. These factors according to the order from good to bad to classify integration, finally, targeted measures mainly made from 10 areas, these are: population, roads, vehicles, drivers, bridges, transportation, street lighting, medical, GRP and insurance. The hope is that it can helpful to improve road traffic of Zhenjiang city.

KEY WORDS: traffic safety; people; vehicle; road; causes; countermeasures; grey relational

目 录
第一章 前言 5
第二章 道路交通事故概况 6
2.1国外概况 6
2.2国内概况 8
2.3xx近年交通安全状况 9
第三章 交通事故成因分析 10
3.1人的因素分析 10
3.1.1驾驶员的因素 10
3.2车辆因素分析 13
3.2.1车辆直接因素 13
3.2.2车辆间接因素 13
3.3道路因素分析 14
3.3.1道路线形因素 14
3.3.2视距因素 14
3.3.3其他道路因素 15
第四章 灰色关联分析 16
4.1灰色关联方法简介 16
4.2收集整理数据 18
4.3确定参考数列 18
4.4计算绝对差值 24
4.5计算关联系数 24
4.6计算关联度 25
4.7结果分析 30
第五章 交通事故对策措施 34
5.1基于灰色关联分析结果的对策措施 34
5.2人的对策措施 36
5.2.1驾驶员的对策措施 36
5.2.2非驾驶员的对策措施 38
5.3车辆对策措施 39
5.3.1车辆设计的对策措施 39
5.3.2车辆维护的对策措施 40
5.4道路对策措施 40
5.4.1道路线形的对策措施 41
5.4.2视距的对策措施 43
5.4.3其他道路因素的对策措施 43
第六章 结论与展望 44
6.1结论 44
6.2展望 45
参考文献 46
致谢 47
附录一 48
附录二 56
附录三 70