概率与彩票.doc
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概率与彩票,probability andlottery14600字31页摘要: 随着福利彩票事业的飞速发展，人们对其投资的热情也越来越高。同时，为了获得巨额回报，彩民对彩票分析及预测技术的要求也越来越高。于是互联网相应而产生了一些彩票预测网站。但是，这些网站提供的彩票分析预测技术还处在探索与发展的阶段，并没有一个有效的...
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概率与彩票
Probability and lottery
14600字 31页
摘要: 随着福利彩票事业的飞速发展，人们对其投资的热情也越来越高。同时，为了获得巨额回报，彩民对彩票分析及预测技术的要求也越来越高。于是互联网相应而产生了一些彩票预测网站。但是，这些网站提供的彩票分析预测技术还处在探索与发展的阶段，并没有一个有效的预测方法。本论文在概率论的基础上以双色球彩票为应用背景进行深入研究，其主要内容包括：
（1）介绍彩票与概率论之间的关系：彩票的研究离不开概率论，概率论可以也应该用在彩票的分析和预测过程中。
（2）在介绍双色球彩票规则的基础上，将概率论运用到双色球彩票的分析中，精确计算了各奖级的中奖概率，并分析了双色球彩票的随机特征，使彩民对中奖概率有一个准确的认识。
（3）在随机特征的基础上，提出反向预测和正向预测这两种方法。在反向预测中分别从奇偶分析、区间分析、号码和值分析、某个号码出现次数分析这几个方面运用概率进行趋势的预测，符合概率论中随机事件的变化规律。而在正向预测中我们建立了马尔科夫链模型，对双色球彩票短期偏态进行预测，且成效显著。
关键词： 双色球彩票；概率；马尔科夫链模型；彩票预测
Probability and Lottery
Abstract: With the development of the welfare lottery, people’s enthusiasm become higher. At the same time, in order to obtain huge returns, people’s requirements on the lottery analysis and prediction has become more urgent. So some lottery prediction site occurred on the Internet. However, the lottery prediction technologies on these sites are still in the stage of exploration, and there isn't an effective prediction method. The research in this paper is based on the theory of probability, and the main points of view include:
(1)We introduce the relationship between the lottery and probability theory: the research on the lottery cannot do without the theory of probability; probability theory can be used on the analysis of lottery.
(2) First, we introduce the rules of double color ball. Then applied the probability theory to the analysis of the double color ball: calculate the probability of the prize in different levels. Finally, we analyze the random characteristics of lottery.
(3) Based on the random characteristic, we proposed two methods: reverse prediction and positive-going prediction. In the reverse prediction, we considered from these aspects of parity analysis, interval analysis, number and value analysis and the number of frequency analysis. By this prediction method, the conclusion conformed to the change rule of random events in probability theory. In the positive-going prediction, we established the Markov chain model, and analysis the short-term partial state of double color ball.
Key words: the double color ball; probability; Markov chain model; lottery prediction
目 录
第一章 引言…………………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 选题背景及意义……………………………………………………………………1
1.2 国内外研究现状综述………………………………………………………………1
1.3 主要内容和章节安排………………………………………………………………2
1.3.1 论文主要内容 …………………………………………………………………2
1.3.2 论文章节安排 …………………………………………………………………2
第二章 彩票与概率 ……………………………………………………………………3
2.1 彩票简介 ……………………………………………………………………………3
2.2 概率论：助你博彩的利器 …………………………………………………………3
2.3 本章小结 ……………………………………………………………………………4
第三章 双色球彩票相关知识及其随机特征 ………………………………………5
3.1双色球彩票相关知识 ………………………………………………………………5
3.1.1双色球彩票规则……………………………………………………………………5
3.1.2双色球彩票设奖……………………………………………………………………5
3.2双色球彩票的中奖概率计算…………………………………………………………6
3.3双色球彩票中的随机特征……………………………………………………………7
3.3.1概率均等性…………………………………………………………………………7
3.3.2 偏态性………………………………………………………………………………7
3.3.3连贯性………………………………………………………………………………7
3.4 本章小结………………………………………………………………………………7
第四章 概率的运用：双色球彩票的分析与预测 …………………………………8
4.1反向预测 ……………………………………………………………………………8
4.1.1反向预测原理………………………………………………………………………8
4.1.2奇偶分析……………………………………………………………………………9
4.1.3区间分析……………………………………………………………………………9
4.1.4某号码出现次数分析 ……………………..
Probability and lottery
14600字 31页
摘要: 随着福利彩票事业的飞速发展，人们对其投资的热情也越来越高。同时，为了获得巨额回报，彩民对彩票分析及预测技术的要求也越来越高。于是互联网相应而产生了一些彩票预测网站。但是，这些网站提供的彩票分析预测技术还处在探索与发展的阶段，并没有一个有效的预测方法。本论文在概率论的基础上以双色球彩票为应用背景进行深入研究，其主要内容包括：
（1）介绍彩票与概率论之间的关系：彩票的研究离不开概率论，概率论可以也应该用在彩票的分析和预测过程中。
（2）在介绍双色球彩票规则的基础上，将概率论运用到双色球彩票的分析中，精确计算了各奖级的中奖概率，并分析了双色球彩票的随机特征，使彩民对中奖概率有一个准确的认识。
（3）在随机特征的基础上，提出反向预测和正向预测这两种方法。在反向预测中分别从奇偶分析、区间分析、号码和值分析、某个号码出现次数分析这几个方面运用概率进行趋势的预测，符合概率论中随机事件的变化规律。而在正向预测中我们建立了马尔科夫链模型，对双色球彩票短期偏态进行预测，且成效显著。
关键词： 双色球彩票；概率；马尔科夫链模型；彩票预测
Probability and Lottery
Abstract: With the development of the welfare lottery, people’s enthusiasm become higher. At the same time, in order to obtain huge returns, people’s requirements on the lottery analysis and prediction has become more urgent. So some lottery prediction site occurred on the Internet. However, the lottery prediction technologies on these sites are still in the stage of exploration, and there isn't an effective prediction method. The research in this paper is based on the theory of probability, and the main points of view include:
(1)We introduce the relationship between the lottery and probability theory: the research on the lottery cannot do without the theory of probability; probability theory can be used on the analysis of lottery.
(2) First, we introduce the rules of double color ball. Then applied the probability theory to the analysis of the double color ball: calculate the probability of the prize in different levels. Finally, we analyze the random characteristics of lottery.
(3) Based on the random characteristic, we proposed two methods: reverse prediction and positive-going prediction. In the reverse prediction, we considered from these aspects of parity analysis, interval analysis, number and value analysis and the number of frequency analysis. By this prediction method, the conclusion conformed to the change rule of random events in probability theory. In the positive-going prediction, we established the Markov chain model, and analysis the short-term partial state of double color ball.
Key words: the double color ball; probability; Markov chain model; lottery prediction
目 录
第一章 引言…………………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 选题背景及意义……………………………………………………………………1
1.2 国内外研究现状综述………………………………………………………………1
1.3 主要内容和章节安排………………………………………………………………2
1.3.1 论文主要内容 …………………………………………………………………2
1.3.2 论文章节安排 …………………………………………………………………2
第二章 彩票与概率 ……………………………………………………………………3
2.1 彩票简介 ……………………………………………………………………………3
2.2 概率论：助你博彩的利器 …………………………………………………………3
2.3 本章小结 ……………………………………………………………………………4
第三章 双色球彩票相关知识及其随机特征 ………………………………………5
3.1双色球彩票相关知识 ………………………………………………………………5
3.1.1双色球彩票规则……………………………………………………………………5
3.1.2双色球彩票设奖……………………………………………………………………5
3.2双色球彩票的中奖概率计算…………………………………………………………6
3.3双色球彩票中的随机特征……………………………………………………………7
3.3.1概率均等性…………………………………………………………………………7
3.3.2 偏态性………………………………………………………………………………7
3.3.3连贯性………………………………………………………………………………7
3.4 本章小结………………………………………………………………………………7
第四章 概率的运用：双色球彩票的分析与预测 …………………………………8
4.1反向预测 ……………………………………………………………………………8
4.1.1反向预测原理………………………………………………………………………8
4.1.2奇偶分析……………………………………………………………………………9
4.1.3区间分析……………………………………………………………………………9
4.1.4某号码出现次数分析 ……………………..
