上市公司会计估计变更研究--以我国煤炭行业为例.doc

  
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上市公司会计估计变更研究--以我国煤炭行业为例,15700字我自己的毕业论文,原创,仅在本站独家提交,推荐使用摘要 由于会计估计是指企业对其结果不确定的交易或事项以最近可以利用的信息为基础所作的判断,对会计估计的变更带有很大的主观性;又由于信息不对称性,外部人员不能很好的评价上市公司作出的会计估计的合理性,因此,会计估计...
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上市公司会计估计变更研究--以我国煤炭行业为例

15700字
我自己的毕业论文,原创,仅在本站独家提交,推荐使用


摘要 由于会计估计是指企业对其结果不确定的交易或事项以最近可以利用的信息为基础所作的判断,对会计估计的变更带有很大的主观性;又由于信息不对称性,外部人员不能很好的评价上市公司作出的会计估计的合理性,因此,会计估计变更已逐渐成为我国上市公司用来进行利润操纵的手段。随着我国煤炭行业黄金十年的终结,近年来煤炭行业发展速度放缓,相应的会计估计变更与公司业绩呈现出一定的相关关系。
煤炭行业是我国国民经济中的基础产业,是典型的周期性行业,受宏观经济发展趋势的影响,其产品产量、消费量和企业利润也呈现出一定趋势,是反映实体经济发展景气与否的风向标;同时,煤炭行业产业链多样化,当作为整个国民经济产业链上游的煤炭行业产能受到影响,下游行业产能也随之波动;煤炭行业的重要战略地位使得国家对其监管力度和范围很广。对我国煤炭行业发展的介绍为实证研究进行了铺垫。
对我国煤炭行业上市公司会计估计变更的实证研究是本文的核心。本文以沪深两市A股煤炭行业上市公司2004-2013会计年度的年度报表为研究样本,引入修正Jones模型和应计利润总额模型并进行分析后,得出煤炭行业上市公司确实存在着利润操纵的事实。再通过对煤炭行业上市公司会计估计变更的年度、内容及其对利润的影响程度进行分析,得出具体操纵利润的方式呈现出阶段性特点,操纵内容集中在应收账款坏账准备计提比例变更和固定资产折旧年限、残值率变更,且在增加盈利和减少盈利两种自发性会计估计选择变更中,上市公司更倾向于选择后者。本文最后对上市公司、注册会计师审计和外部监管者提出了几条建议。

关键词:煤炭行业 上市公司 会计估计变更 实证研究

Research on Accounting Estimates of Listed Companies
--A China’s Coal Industry Perspective
Abstract Accounting estimate is such judgement made by enterprises on transactions or events of uncertain results that based on latest information available, so to some extent, changes in accounting estimates are characterized by subjectivity. And because of information asymmetry, outside parties cannot well eva luate the rationality of changes in accounting estimates made by listed companies. Therefore, changes in accounting estimates have gradually become the means of profit manipulation by China's listed companies. With the end of ten years’ prosperity of China's coal industry, the overall performance of such companies is of a declining trend. There seems to be a certain correlation between the corresponding changes in accounting estimates and the performance of theses companies.
The coal industry is the fundamental industry of China’s national economy. As is a typical cyclical industry, affected by macroeconomic trends, coal industry has become the indicator of the development of real economy by its output, consumption and corporate profits. Diversity is a characteristic of the coal industry chain. While coal industry, the upstream industry of the entire national economy, is affected with its capacity, the capacity of downstream industry is at fluctuation. The important strategic position of the coal industry has led to the strict regulation by the government. The introduction of China’s coal industry sets the stage for empirical research.
The empirical study of the changes in accounting estimates of China’s coal industry is the core of this article. This paper is based on the samples of A-share companies of China’s coal industry that have changed accounting estimates in the annual reports issued during 2004-2013. By using modified Jones model and accrued profit model, there lies the fact that profit manipulation exists in listed companies by analysis. And by analyzing the time, content of changes in accounting estimates and its influence toward profit, it is concluded that the specific way of manipulation profit verifies in different period, and the content focused on the accounts receivable provision for bad debt provision ratio changes and fixed number of year of the depreciation of fixed assets and the salvage value rate changes. Another conclusion is that listed companies tend to prefer reducing profits by using spontaneous changes in accounting estimates. Finally, the paper put forward several suggestions for listed company, CPA auditing and external regulators.

Key words: Coal industry Listed companies Changes in accounting estimates Empirical research

目 录
引 言 1
第一章 会计估计理论概述 2
1.1 会计估计相关理论 2
1.1.1 会计估计的含义 2
1.1.2 会计估计的类型 2
1.2 会计估计变更相关理论 3
1.2.1 会计估计变更的含义 3
1.2.2 会计估计变更的情形 3
1.3 会计估计变更与利润操纵的关系 4
1.3.1 利润操纵的概念界定 4
1.3.2 利用会计估计变更操纵利润的类型 4
第二章 我国煤炭行业发展概述 6
2.1 我国煤炭行业基本情况 6
2.2 我国煤炭行业发展特点 8
2.2.1 周期性行业,受经济发展周期影响 8
2.2.2 产业链多样化,与相关行业关联度高 8
2.2.3 受国家政策影响,监管力度较大 9
第三章 我国煤炭行业上市公司会计估计变更的实证研究 11
3.1 模型和统计工具的选择 11
3.2 样本的选择和数据来源 12
3.3 实证研究 13
3.3.1 对操纵性应计利润的实证结果 13
3.3.2 对变更年度..