火电行业财务危机预警研究.doc
约30页DOC格式手机打开展开
火电行业财务危机预警研究,13800字自己的原创毕业论文，仅在本站独家提交，大家放心使用摘要随着改革开放和市场经济在我国的飞速发展，我国的企业、上市公司如雨后春笋般冒出来。中国加入wto以后，我国企业面临更广阔的环境和机遇，但同时也要承担更大的风险。不少企业因经营不良而导致破产。要避免财务危机的发生，关键还是在企业自身，...
内容介绍
此文档由会员 否极泰来 发布
火电行业财务危机预警研究
13800字
自己的原创毕业论文，仅在本站独家提交，大家放心使用
摘 要
随着改革开放和市场经济在我国的飞速发展，我国的企业、上市公司如雨后春笋般冒出来。中国加入WTO以后，我国企业面临更广阔的环境和机遇，但同时也要承担更大的风险。不少企业因经营不良而导致破产。要避免财务危机的发生，关键还是在企业自身，建立一套有效地财务危机预警机制显得尤为重要。火力发电是我国最重要的发电形式，承担着我国一半以上的电力供应任务。但是，火力发电对环境的污染也比较严重。现如今，我国对环境保护的呼声越来越高。同时风能，水能，太阳能，核能发电也逐渐发展起来，对火电行业造成一定的冲击。截至目前，已有好几家火电上市公司面临过财务危机。因此，本文选定对火电行业进行财务危机预警研究，有比较重要的现实意义。
本文首先对财务危机预警进行理论研究，明确财务危机、危机形成的原因、财务危机预警等相关概念的涵义。然后寻找研究的样本并选取指标，选择有效的预警模型进行实证研究。经过多方比较，本文选取的是Logistic回归模型，建模之前要对样本数据进行显著性检验，剔除不具有显著性差异的指标以保证模型的准确性。最后提出本文研究的结论并给出建议。
关键词：火电行业 财务危机预警 Logistic回归模型
ABSTRACT
With the reform and opening up and rapid development of China's market economy, China's enterprises, listed companies have sprung up. After China joined the WTO, China's enterprises are facing a broader environment and have more opportunities, but they also take greater risks. Many companies bankrupt due to poor operation.To avoid the financial crisis, the key is in the business itself, it is particularly important to establish an effective early warning mechanism to the financial crisis. Thermal power is the most important form of generation. It bears more than half of China's electricity supply missions. However, thermal pollution of the environment is also more serious. Today, our voice on environmental protection is increasing. Meanwhile, wind, hydro, solar, nuclear power has gradually developed and have a certain impact to the thermal power industry. So far, several thermal power listed company have faced financial crisis. Therefore, this paper select the thermal power industry to study the financial crisis early warning. There are more important practical significance.
Firstly, this paper take the theoretical study of the financial crisis early warning, clearly the meaning of financial crisis, the formation of the causes of the crisis, the meaning of the financial crisis early warning and other related concepts. Then look for the study sample and select targets, select an effective early-warning model of empirical research. After careful comparison, the paper selected the Logistic regression model. Before modeling, we have to take significant test to the sample data and exclude index without significant differences ensure the accuracy of the model. Finally, we draw conclusions and gives recommendations.
Keywords: thermal power industry financial crisis warning Logistic regression models
目录
引 言 1
1.财务危机预警概述 2
1.1财务危机的判定 2
1.2财务危机形成的原因 3
1.3财务危机预警的概念 4
1.4火电行业财务危机预警的意义 4
2.火电行业财务危机预警方法的选择 6
2.1财务危机预警的理论依据 6
2.2财务危机预警方法的比较 6
2.3本文财务危机预警方法的确立 7
3.火电行业财务危机预警模型研究样本及预警指标选取 8
3.1研究样本的选取 8
3.2预警指标的选取 9
3.2.1预警指标的选取原则 9
3.2.2预警指标的初步选择 10
3.3火电行业财务危机预警指标的筛选 11
3.3.1正态分布检验 12
3.3.2两独立样本的t检验 12
3.3.3两独立样本的Mann-Whitney U检验 13
3.4通过显著性差异检验的指标 14
4.火电行业财务危机预警模型的建立 16
4.1Logistic回归模型的建立 16
4.2Logistic回归模型的检验 17
5.本研究的结论及建议 19
5.1研究的结论 19
5.2本文的建议 19
结束语 21
参考文献： 22
附录一：stata12操作命令 24
13800字
自己的原创毕业论文，仅在本站独家提交，大家放心使用
摘 要
随着改革开放和市场经济在我国的飞速发展，我国的企业、上市公司如雨后春笋般冒出来。中国加入WTO以后，我国企业面临更广阔的环境和机遇，但同时也要承担更大的风险。不少企业因经营不良而导致破产。要避免财务危机的发生，关键还是在企业自身，建立一套有效地财务危机预警机制显得尤为重要。火力发电是我国最重要的发电形式，承担着我国一半以上的电力供应任务。但是，火力发电对环境的污染也比较严重。现如今，我国对环境保护的呼声越来越高。同时风能，水能，太阳能，核能发电也逐渐发展起来，对火电行业造成一定的冲击。截至目前，已有好几家火电上市公司面临过财务危机。因此，本文选定对火电行业进行财务危机预警研究，有比较重要的现实意义。
本文首先对财务危机预警进行理论研究，明确财务危机、危机形成的原因、财务危机预警等相关概念的涵义。然后寻找研究的样本并选取指标，选择有效的预警模型进行实证研究。经过多方比较，本文选取的是Logistic回归模型，建模之前要对样本数据进行显著性检验，剔除不具有显著性差异的指标以保证模型的准确性。最后提出本文研究的结论并给出建议。
关键词：火电行业 财务危机预警 Logistic回归模型
ABSTRACT
With the reform and opening up and rapid development of China's market economy, China's enterprises, listed companies have sprung up. After China joined the WTO, China's enterprises are facing a broader environment and have more opportunities, but they also take greater risks. Many companies bankrupt due to poor operation.To avoid the financial crisis, the key is in the business itself, it is particularly important to establish an effective early warning mechanism to the financial crisis. Thermal power is the most important form of generation. It bears more than half of China's electricity supply missions. However, thermal pollution of the environment is also more serious. Today, our voice on environmental protection is increasing. Meanwhile, wind, hydro, solar, nuclear power has gradually developed and have a certain impact to the thermal power industry. So far, several thermal power listed company have faced financial crisis. Therefore, this paper select the thermal power industry to study the financial crisis early warning. There are more important practical significance.
Firstly, this paper take the theoretical study of the financial crisis early warning, clearly the meaning of financial crisis, the formation of the causes of the crisis, the meaning of the financial crisis early warning and other related concepts. Then look for the study sample and select targets, select an effective early-warning model of empirical research. After careful comparison, the paper selected the Logistic regression model. Before modeling, we have to take significant test to the sample data and exclude index without significant differences ensure the accuracy of the model. Finally, we draw conclusions and gives recommendations.
Keywords: thermal power industry financial crisis warning Logistic regression models
目录
引 言 1
1.财务危机预警概述 2
1.1财务危机的判定 2
1.2财务危机形成的原因 3
1.3财务危机预警的概念 4
1.4火电行业财务危机预警的意义 4
2.火电行业财务危机预警方法的选择 6
2.1财务危机预警的理论依据 6
2.2财务危机预警方法的比较 6
2.3本文财务危机预警方法的确立 7
3.火电行业财务危机预警模型研究样本及预警指标选取 8
3.1研究样本的选取 8
3.2预警指标的选取 9
3.2.1预警指标的选取原则 9
3.2.2预警指标的初步选择 10
3.3火电行业财务危机预警指标的筛选 11
3.3.1正态分布检验 12
3.3.2两独立样本的t检验 12
3.3.3两独立样本的Mann-Whitney U检验 13
3.4通过显著性差异检验的指标 14
4.火电行业财务危机预警模型的建立 16
4.1Logistic回归模型的建立 16
4.2Logistic回归模型的检验 17
5.本研究的结论及建议 19
5.1研究的结论 19
5.2本文的建议 19
结束语 21
参考文献： 22
附录一：stata12操作命令 24
