某市物流流量流向分析（本科毕业论文设计）.doc

摘 要

现代物流作为一种提高效益的有效途径，己成为国民经济的支柱产业和新的经济增长点，目前被认为是第三利润源泉。发展现代物流是增强一个国家、地区竞争力的重要途径。
随着我国加入WTO和西部大开发战略的进一步深入，某市作为中国最年轻的直辖市，同时是西南地区的交通枢纽和制造业基地。经济必将进入腾飞，同时会产生大量物流，但是，由于交通规划、产业结构、政策措施等原因，某市市物流业发展速度缓慢。因此，如何利用现代物流理论对某市市物流流向流量分析研究，借鉴发达国家和地区的先进经验与措施，并结合某市市的实际情况提出有效的对策建议，对加快某市市物流业发展的速度，促进某市市经济社会快速健康协调发展有着重要的现实意义。
文章一、二、三部分，对研究目的、意义相关理论概念和某市市物流现状作了介绍分析。以交通运输方式为切入点，分析研究物流流向；接着用货运量结合某市市中转货运比例表示物流量。为下面的研究论述工作做了铺垫。
第四部分首先分析了2006年某市市主要物流流向以及与各流向区域主要交通联系方式。然后结合物流量的各影响因素，包括某市市货运量、流量区域货运量和货运通道，导出本文研究的重点，各物流流向物流量占某市物流总量比例的公式。最后以2020年为预测目标，结合相关政策性文件给出了2020年某市与各流向区域的交通通道以及联系方式变化情况，接着对公路、铁路和水路三种货运量进行了预测，结合公式算出了2020年各流向流量分布情况。
第五部分针对前面的研究，本文提出了某市市物流业发展的对策建议。
第六部分说明本文结论和研究展望，为以后研究与改进提供参考。


关键词：物流，物流流向，物流流量，物流流量预测

ABSTRACT

Modern logistics as an effective way to improve efficiency, has become the national economy's pillar industries and new economic growth points, is now considered is the third profit source. Enhance the development of modern logistics is a national, regional competitiveness in an important way.
As China's accession to the WTO and the western development strategy of further in-depth, and Chongqing as the youngest municipality in China, while the southwestern region is the transport hub and manufacturing base. Into the economy will take off at the same time will have a lot of logistics, but due to transportation planning, industrial policy measures and other reasons, the Chongqing Municipal development of the logistics industry has been slow. Therefore, how to use modern logistics of the Chongqing Municipal logistics flow of traffic analysis study, learn from developed countries and regions with the advanced experience of measures, combined with the actual situation in Chongqing Municipality to propose effective measures to accelerate the development of the logistics industry in Chongqing City, the speed, Chongqing Municipality to promote economic and social coordination, rapid and healthy development is of important practical significance.
PartⅠ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ ：The purpose of the study, the significance of theoretical concepts related to logistics and Chongqing Municipality made an introductory analysis of the status quo. To transport mode for the entry point, the analysis of the logistics flows and then combined with cargo transit cargo in Chongqing Municipality said that the proportion of logistics. Below is the research work done on the stage.
Part IV： First, Chongqing Municipal major logistics flows and flows with the main regional transport links means. Then with the logistics of the various factors, including the Chongqing Municipal cargo, freight and cargo traffic regional channels, the focus of this paper is derived, in the logistics flow of logistics in Chongqing account for the proportion of the total logistics formula. Finally, 2020 is forecast target, with the relevant policy documents presented in 2020 with the Chongqing region of the flow of traffic access and the associated changes in the way, and then on road, rail and sea cargo for the three forecasts, calculated with the formula The 2020 distribution of the flow of traffic.
Part V for the previous study, this paper, the Chongqing Municipal Development of the logistics industry recommendations.
Part VI conclusions and that this study prospects for future research and improvement of reference.


Key words： Logistics, Logistics Flow, Volume of Logistics Flow, Forecast


目 录

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT II
1绪论 1
1.1 课题研究目的 1
1.2 课题研究意义 1
1.2.1 课题研究学术意义 1
1.2.2 课题研究的实用意义 2
1.3本文的主要内容 2
2相关概念的理论研究 3
2.1物流概念介绍 3
2.2 物流流量概念及流量预测方法介绍 4
2.3 物流流向相关概念介绍 4
3国内及某市市物流现状分析 6
3.1 WTO时代我国物流产业发展现状 6
3.1.1从国内物流产业发展速度看 6
3.1.2从国内物流企业经营方式来看 6
3.1.3从国内物流运作模式来看 6
3.1.4从国内物流产业空间布局来看 7
3.1.5从国内物流市场格局来看 7
3.2 某市市物流现状 7
3.2.1 物流基础设施——交通状况 8
3.2.2 某市对外口岸建设情况 9
3.2.3 某市市物流人才储备状况 11
3.2.4某市市物流业发展的政策制度状况 11
4某市市物流主要流向流量分析及预测 12
4.1 某市市物流主要流向分析 12
4.2 某市市物流各个流向上的物流量 13
4.3 2020年某市市物流流向及其交..